Not One for the Win Column

All my Spoon Tomato seedlings are either dead or dying for no discernable reason, and I didn’t get picked from the waitlist for Goldfinch, so I am putting Tuesday in the “bad day” column and moving on. 

(I am more bummed about the tomatoes than Goldfinch – I spent actual money and time on those!)

I don’t care if I get called out for price shaming on this, but seriously, I need to rant right now. Prices are completely out of control not just for the Silver, but for just about… everything right now. Who are all these people buying $1000 Alborozos? 

Speculator markets like the one we’re apparently in the middle of are scary, dangerous, and never end well. I want no part of this.

This is also why I am not optimistic about getting picked for the True Blue Exclusive Event: people like me who actually want to participate in the event are going to be outnumbered by the resellers.

(I kind of wish there weren’t any exclusive items for these events at all, beyond the one model and the one Stablemate. But I know I am dreaming.)

One of the side effects of this speculator’s market is the sheer abundance of White Boxers that have come up for sale. The White Boxer is one of the few Traditional Breyer Dogs I don’t have – and at the prices they are currently going for, it’s going to stay that way.

Years ago it was assumed that only a small quantity of White Boxers existed – I think the number that floated around was 25? – but that’s since been disproven by both documentary evidence and the sheer number of them that have turned up over the years. 

Scarce? Yeah. Eight hundred dollars worth of Rare? Nope.

Some of the pricing on these Boxers is a consequence of misinformation still being circulated. That was the case with the Buckskin Lady Phases for years, as well.

Collectors, for the most part, now realize that not all Buckskin Lady Phases are the same, and “rare, extremely limited quantity” label attached to her referred to her slightly (but noticeably) different Model Horse Congress and VaLes Bead Trailer runs, not her later and actually pretty numerous JC Penney’s Christmas catalog run. 

But the White Boxer? It looks like I am going to have to continue biding my time until (a) I get lucky, (b) this nutso speculator’s market we’re currently trapped in finally abates or (c) the hobby finally comes around to the idea that it’s not THAT rare of a model in the first place, and moves on to something else.

Preferably something I do not want, or already have.

(I know, also dreaming.)

The Daft Days

The Zebra arrived today, but I’ll probably wait until the weekend to open him up – partly to forestall any potential disappointments, and because I am already elbow deep in horse inventory stuff. The Stablemates alone will be the death of me…

And speaking of, Reeves pushed out one last enticement to join the Stablemates Club: an optional seventh release, a Mini Me of the Dapple Gray Clydesdale Stallion by the name of Duke.

A moot point for me (I signed up a while ago) but there is the answer to the not-really-a-question of whether or not they’re shrinky-dinking other Vintage molds. Of course they are.

But let’s get back to the question of Ambrose. Some of you won’t like my answer, but you know I am not afraid of being a contrarian.

I find that Reeves’ marketing of Ambrose – one that emphasizes its “painted in the USA” status – as both a little cynical and troubling.

For one, it devalues some of the genuinely beautiful models that are now being made in China. Are they all “Live Show Quality”? No. But the possibility of acquiring something excellent at a not unreasonable price does exist.

And not only that, this exclusivity is simply not true: there are a lot of models still painted in the USA: some of the Web Specials (Wailua, Bramble), Volunteer Specials, Prize and Raffle models, models for Exclusive Events. To name a few.

Sure, they may not available to everyone equally, but a $300 model hyped as being “extraordinary” and sold on a First-Come, First-Served basis at the end of an already overcrowded December selling season is also… not available to everyone equally.

It’s just another flavor of exclusivity, albeit an economic one. For those of us who choose not to (or simply cannot) spend ourselves into oblivion during the holidays, we’re now faced with a glut of promotions with ever escalating stakes. Do we risk getting a Gloss Regular Run, or should we wait for the Winter Web Specials? Will the Christmas Day model be to our liking, or will Reeves throw down something else in the “Daft Days” that follow? Is a New Year’s Day Special not far behind?

The hobby’s original appeal of opening the often-too-expensive world of horses to everyone is something now reflected even Breyer’s own marketing strategy: “A Horse of Your Own”. This is an approach I’ve been touting for years, and I am glad that Reeves is taking it. 

Targeting to your higher-end customers is not wrong, but when it appears that you are catering to the higher-end customers to the exclusion of everyone else, that’s a problem. Especially when those customers not only expect it, but demand it.

This issue ties to another troubling point in Ambrose’s sale pitch: quality escalation. While I have no doubt that the Ambroses will be uniformly excellent, they will not be uniformly perfect. Looking at the way many hobbyists nitpick models at half – or even one-tenth – the price, I can only imagine how intense the scrutiny will be for models like Ambrose, and his successors.

It can’t end well.

If they continue this “series” – based on the response, I am assuming that it’s going to be added to the end-of-year sales blitz – I won’t rule out the possibility of buying one in the future. But it’ll have to be on a mold I really love in a color I can’t pass up: I prefer to buy things for keeps, not to speculate.

Boundaries

It was a pretty good day at the flea market, all things considered:

This wasn’t all of it, just the most interesting bits. (Looks like I’ll be doing that Christmas-themed Western Horse custom after all!) The ceramic Dinosaur came out of a box lot of figurines that one of my regular vendors gave me a sweet deal on, and the MiniWhinnies were in a bag of Schleichs and other plastic/rubber toys.

In other words, it looks like I am well on my way towards restocking my Dollar Table for next year!

(Before you ask: that Dimetrodon is definitely staying.)

Normally I’d be way more excited about the two aquarium figurines I found, but I happened to watch a video of the auction I had to miss on Saturday, and there were dozens (dozens!) of vintage ones there sold in box lots. I hoped a few of them would have shown up at the flea market but alas, I had to content myself with just these two.

I am a cheapskate, so buying them piecemeal on eBay or at antique shows/malls is not my preferred option.

How much is too much? I won’t pay more than five dollars per piece usually, and it has to be pretty special to me to cough up a fiver (or more) for it.

In comparison, my model horse spending limit is $350 for a single item. Not counting the two “Exclusive Events” I’ve attended, and all of the associated costs of BreyerFest, I think I’ve come close to that limit maybe two or three times?

However, relatively speaking, it is really quite a low boundary – especially when you consider how my tastes run.

While I don’t begrudge hobbyists who have higher spending tolerances, I sometimes do find myself casting a slightly skeptical eye their way. I’ve been in this hobby (and a few others) long enough to be wary of folks who spend a lot of money in relatively short periods of time: I have sometimes seen it not… end well, not just for the person or persons involved, but the hobby as well.

One of the foundational aspects of the model horse hobby was that it was an affordable alternative to the “real” horse world, and I’d hate to see price escalation push people away.

But this is also one of the reasons why I got into researching Breyer History in the first place: while I will probably never be comfortable competing with money, competing with knowledge I can totally do. And one of the reasons this blog exists is so that you can, too. 

Bubbles

Hobby resolutions: focus on collecting/upgrading the dogs, upgrading my pre-Reeves Proud Arabians, and completing the Roemer collection; finish sorting and archiving the latest ephemera acquisitions; and finally, doing a 5 percent herd reduction for space reasons.

That last item might not sound like much, but that will cull about 100 pieces from the collection, mostly Traditionals and Classics. (No Stablemates! I can hide those anywhere.)

I got home late from work yesterday, and I’ve spent most of my day off sorting through my giant box of unfinished sewing projects (another resolution), so the Glacier who arrived yesterday will not get his glorious unveiling until Monday at the earliest.

Though I’m a little scared to even open him up, at this point. Not out of possible disappointment - that's an uncomfortably narrow box he's in - but because of the prices realized by a couple of them on eBay this week.

I’ll be up front with y’all and confess that I come from a working class background: my family thinks splurging on an occasional Big Gulp and a bag of Doritos is wanton excess. Investing more than $250 on any model makes me uneasy, even if I know it is worth more - or will be in the future.

And I’ve also spent a lot of time at flea markets, yard sales, estate sales and antique shops, and I’ve seen the fallout of collectible "investment" bubbles everywhere, new and old.

The current prices for Glacier are part of a bubble. That bubble will pop soon, if it hasn’t already, but it will leave us with a legacy of Glaciers listed at hyperinflated prices for a while.

The 1984 Just About Horses Saddlebred Weanling was like that for a long time. Because of the flawed way they were distributed (by mail, and not limited to one per person), it created a lot of frustrated demand. The prices at one point reached the $200-350 level - and that was in the late 1980s and early 1990s!

I went without one for years (decades, actually) until the prices finally dropped to the $100 level, which seemed more reasonable and fair for a Special Run model with a 1000 piece run and some historical significance.

Prices will come down, eventually, because they have to. The hobby does not have enough hobbyists at that income or intensity level to sustain them.  The handful of buyers who can afford them don't want them or already have them, and the buyers who do want them can't afford them - or justify the purchase financially.

It might take a while; we've all seen certain models on eBay and MH$P that have been there for years. (In some of my more annoyed moments, I find myself gesticulating at the screen and yelling "Just cut the darn price and let it go, already!")

Glaciers will never be "cheap" - he was a 40 piece Special Run, in a popular Decorator color, on a mold with very few releases - but they’ll become affordable. Or at least, not unimaginably unattainable. (Still waiting for that moment on Marshall, probably in vain. Alas!)

Mold Marked Fury Prancers

Something short today; I am still recovering from the minor medical procedure I had done on Wednesday. Again, it’s nothing serious: I had to change my sleeping position until the incision heals, and I am not getting a lot of quality sleep time as a result.

I was fortunate to acquire a number of Fury Prancers in one of my recent collection purchases, though space being what it is around here, I wasn’t able to keep any for myself. What was most interesting about them was that most had the circular mold mark. You can just barely see it on this Palomino one:

The Fury Prancer was issued in multiple colors - Palomino, Alabaster, Black Pinto, Palomino Pinto, Black Beauty - from ca. 1956 and probably through 1961, being replaced ca. 1962 by the Western Prancing Horse. (It was also issued in Woodgrain and in Blue, but both of those appear to be special run/special order things with very narrow production windows that didn't cross the mold mark divide, either way.)

Like most molds still in production at the time, it received the circular mold mark ca. 1960.

The #27 TV’s Fury - the solid Black, with 4 socks and a star - isn’t uncommonly found with it; they did make him for at least another five or so years after that, through 1965. But other Prancers in other colors are somewhat more difficult to find, which makes sense: they were made for two years, at most. It’s the two years near the end of their run too, when production quantities already tend to be lower.

While I was a bit bummed that I couldn't hoard them like I wanted to, I took some consolation in the fact that Mold Marked Fury Prancers are not extravagantly more rare than the unmarked ones, and many collectors haven’t turned their attention towards that mold variation - yet.

As more collectors focus on collecting specific molds, colors, or eras, I think mold variations like this will become more significant in terms of collectibility and value. As they already have with the Clydesdale Stallion, and are beginning to do so with the Family Arabians and the Quarter Horse Gelding. 

I wasn’t able to detect any other obvious or subtle mold changes between the pre-mold mark and post-mold mark Fury Prancers, but they didn’t stick around long enough for me to notice, either. Another research topic tossed onto the "look into it later" pile, I guess.

Sentimental Favorites

You guys are making me so jealous of all your crazy awesome finds lately. Poor little me couldn’t even find the time to make it to my local town-wide garage sale today.

Though I did recently go on a road trip for work with a coworker and discovered that he also enjoys horse racing and going to estate sales. He’s somewhat familiar with Breyers and Hartlands, and asked for some reference materials on Hagen-Renakers. So perhaps some nice finds will be winding their way to my house soon.

Let’s get back to the Classics Racehorse discussion.

Since I tend to think that most modern collectibles are a dicey proposition for investing in the first place - with some rare exceptions - I try to avoid telling people to buy certain items for investment purposes. Hobbyists and collectors are exceedingly fickle, and what’s hot and pricey today could literally be almost worthless tomorrow.

Most Classics are not that valuable. There’s some residual value in most of the Hagen-Renaker Classics - like the Arabian and Quarter Horse Families - as customizing fodder, but outside of Test Colors and Chalkies, most of the value is sentimental.

Even when the piece runs are rather limited and/or hard to come by - like the Bay Andalusian Mare, the German Special Runs, or some of the BreyerFest SRs - the prices remain rather modest. Of the more modern pieces, the only exception here is probably the Classics Shire, particularly the head-down "B" version: there have been only a limited number of releases, none of them easy to acquire even when new.

But when it comes to the Classics Racehorses - the original releases on the original 5 (then 6, with Ruffian) molds - I think there is some genuine potential there. Especially pieces like this - a Silky Sullivan with a Dumbbell sticker.

(Though to be completely honest, anything with a dumbbell is a sound investment. Mine certainly would be, if I harbored any thoughts of selling him. And no, I don’t.)

In the case of the Classics Racehorses, it’s not just a Breyer: it’s also a portrait of a famous racehorse on a mold that has not been and probably won’t be in production again for some time. Throw in additional goodies like boxes and tags, and voila - the closest thing you’ll have to a sure bet, monetarily.

Not Decorator or Rare Woodgrain money, but not everything can be.

What’s nice about some of the earlier Classics Racehorses, too, is that can be identified by their lack of mold marks. I don’t know why that was; perhaps there some legal quibbling over the terms of the lease with Hagen-Renaker, or a technical difficulty, or they were in such a hurry to get them to market that they simply forgot. The Proud Arabian Foal, various members of the Classics Family sets, and some of the Stablemates were also mold-mark-free.

Regardless, the absence of the mold marks can be a boon to us at the flea market and garage sale level. No mold marks = can’t be identified as a Breyer = cheaper prices (usually, and only if box-free, naturally).

I know Reeves has been putting some thought into trying to make the Classics more collectible again; my only thoughts in this regard is that if they want to go the celebrity race-and-sport-horse route, Classics may be the place to go back to.  

Equal Time for the Palomino

In the interest of fairness, here is my Palomino Quarter Horse Yearling - with a Blue Ribbon Sticker!

She has the USA mark, so she’s probably slightly later than the Liver Chestnut one. (1970 was the year that the USA marks were introduced for most - but not all - existing Breyer molds.)

Stickers on Quarter Horse Yearlings are uncommon, because the mold was introduced in 1970, which I believe to be the last year for the Blue Ribbon Sticker program. Other molds and releases introduced that year are also somewhat uncommon with stickers, including the Indian Ponies, Yellow Mount, the Scratching Foal, and the Dall Sheep.

(There was a really nice stickered Dall Sheep on eBay a couple weeks ago, in fact, but he was just a little bit out of my price range. Darn it all!)

If I am recalling correctly, this Yearling was purchased in a group lot with several other rarities, so whether or not she was a bargain is a matter of debate. I am happy to have her, whatever her "real price" was.

I suppose in the market as it is now, I might make that money back, but I rarely seem to make a profit on box lots like some people do. The storage tub of Hartlands I found earlier this year was the exception, not the rule. (I still have a few odds and ends left from that lot I need to sort and price out!)

I’ve listed genuinely rare items that sold for body prices, and I’ve listed perfectly ordinary things that generated crazy bidding wars. It usually averages out in the end, but it does make me wonder sometimes if the effort I spend in preparing my sales items is mostly for naught.

(Other than the cleaning. I find that personally therapeutic, regardless of the return on investment.)

That’s why I tend to take a somewhat measured approach to box lots. Either they have to be cheap enough that I can at least break even selling them as bodies, or there has to be one or more items in the lot that are collection must-haves - AND I can still get most of my money back selling the rest at body-level prices.

I just bought a nice little box lot earlier last week that fell into the latter category. Most of you will laugh when you see what it was that motivated me to buy it.

So, This Happened

So this happened on Sunday, at the flea market. This is as I found - and bought it:

Whoo-hoo, big box of horses! Here’s the box, emptied out:

Yeah, it’s mostly not-Breyer, but I’m not picky: I’m an equal opportunity horse-shaped-object lover here. It’d been a while since I had a "major" score at the flea market, anyway. And the price I got it at? Ain’t no way I was going to pass it up! I swear the whole flea market could hear me cackling on my way back to the car.

(The best part? The old guy who walked up behind me and shook his head. "You got a good deal!" Darn tootin’, I did!)

The only items I’m keeping out of the lot (for now) are the Ohio Arts Western Horse copy, and the Appaloosa Western Prancing Horse. I already have three or four other Appy WPHs, but unlike the others, this one has gigantic polka dot spots. That’s fairly unusual for that particular release - I should know! I’d been on the lookout for that variation for a while, but most of the ones were either too expensive, or didn’t pass muster.

And he’s almost mint! With his original saddle and reins! Remarkable, considering the circumstances he came from.

Some of this stuff will not be making it to BreyerFest, though. I thought I’d toss the Lone Ranger and Tonto on eBay, for instance, considering that the movie premieres this week. Especially since the Scout that came with Tonto is the rare one.

I’m not too wedded to getting a certain price, though. If the contents of this lot cover its initial cost, plus my gas money for BreyerFest, I will be happy. Even if it doesn’t, the thrill of excavating a whole box of vintage horses - everything in the box was at least 35 years old - was worth the price.

I like to make a profit as much as the next person, but I’m also realistic: collectibles, in general, aren’t that great an investment. They can be, if you can keep your emotional distance from them, but this is a difficult thing, since so much of the value is tied up in our emotional attachment to them. 

Jumping In

Before we go any further, here's a slight update to the post previous - a picture of some of those righteous ladies in the painting department, back when. The man on the right is Manuel Valdez, Breyer’s painting supervisor, whose name is sometimes mentioned when higher quality Chicago-era Test Colors turn up:

I used to wonder if, in all my years of horsetrading, I ever had one of those Clydesdale Mares or Rearing Stallions in my possession. I now look at this photo and think one of these people might have been responsible/instigated the shenanigans that led to the Crazy Zebra Painting Party.

The weekend made up for the week preceding, somewhat. Found this gigantic fellow at the town garage sale on Saturday, for instance:

An almost life-sized Red Mill Bulldog! He’s not for sale, but his Five-Gaiter buddy and a big box of recent Stablemates will be. (You can’t see it in the photo, but the Gaiter’s got some nice eyewhites on him!) I also found a big bag of vintage glitter. I don’t know what the heck I’m going to do with it all, though I suspect a Family Arabian Mare may be involved at some point.

I feel bad for neglecting to mention that the next round of auctions at Munda’s was up on Friday, and the second part of the Indiana auctions, too. Too wrapped up in my own crazy business, I guess. From the prices that were realized for some of the items, though, I don’t think they necessarily needed any help from me.

I did find the prices reported for some of the pieces in the Indiana auction a little troubling - much higher than the prices realized for similar pieces in other venues. This is good for the estate, of course, but it makes me sort of glad that I’m more of a Vintage collector than a Contemporary one. (Most of the items in the Indiana sale were Connoisseurs and other more recent releases).

I’d rather spend $300 on a Gloss Dapple Gray Belgian than $3000 on the latest-newest-hottest thing. The volatility of the newer-model market bothers me enough that I tend to shy away from it in practice: if I can’t buy it at or around issue price, I probably won’t buy it at all.

I won’t say never, because there are always exceptions. (Hello there, my beautiful WEG Man o’ War!) The Vintage market isn’t immune either, as the recent crazes for Chalkies and Five-Gaiter Sorrel Family Arabians demonstrate.

But I like the thrill - and unpredictability - of the hunt. Having a set shopping list and applying money directly to it has never been my style, model horses or otherwise. (Yeah, I’m loads of fun in a grocery store, too. Ooh, are those turnips on the clearance rack?)

Actually, the prices I’ve been seeing lately - at auction, on eBay, on MH$P and all that - make me wonder if we’re entering into another "speculator’s" market. Again, I’m mostly insulated from that because of the kinds of models I buy and sell. I am extremely reluctant to sell anything I really like anyway, no matter the prices they start commanding. Sometimes it makes me want just want them even more. What if the price goes up, and stays up? Cheapskate me may never have the opportunity to own another.

I have to admit that I am tempted to jump in, especially since I have some pricey things I need to pay for in the next few months - real life things, not model horse things. A new car is foremost, but there’s also some minor surgery that needs to be done that's likely not covered by my insurance.

What I’m trying to say is that I am seriously contemplating selling that adorable Gray Appaloosa Classic Quarter Horse Foal I showed you a couple weeks back. I haven’t decided on the venue. I’m thinking BreyerFest is going to be the way to go, since he has some condition issues that are best seen in person.

I’ll also have a selection of ephemera for sale, from my recent acquisitions. The problem with those items is that many of them have never been on the market before, especially with provenance, so pricing is the biggest issue there.

When the time comes, I’ll toss a preview ad up on MH$P with the necessary details.

Eating Your Mistakes

Just passing through today. In addition to the crazy work schedule, I have been feeling unwell the past few days. I was a little afraid it might be a touch of whatever intestinal nastiness that has been floating around in these parts (it took out an entire elementary school!) but I think the explanation is a little more innocuous than that.

I’m a decent cook, and a good baker, but the making of candy - fudges, pralines, truffles, even simple barks - stumps me. One of my New Year’s resolutions was to overcome this deficit in my culinary repertoire.

So far, not so good. So rather than let my friends, family and coworkers suffer, I’ve been eating the mistakes. (This weekend it was Peanut Not-Very-Brittle.)

It’s advice I wish more hobbyists would take to heart.

I haven’t been able to cruise the shopping sites for my usual research lately, but frankly, it’s been a bit of a relief. I was getting annoyed with seeing the same stuff, listed over and over and over.

And I’m not talking about low-end, bottom feeder stuff. These are things that a lot of hobbyists and collectors are still willing to purchase, even in this economy - low piece run SRs, high quality show prospects, and the like. It’s the prices that are killing the potential sale: too many of them are being listed at what seems to be the seller’s "break even" point.

If you’re going to buy into the notion that your collection is part of your investment portfolio (assuming, arguendo: it's not an idea I endorse) you’re going to have to accept that sometimes, investments tank. It’s no reflection on you as a hobbyist or person, it just happens.

Happens to me, all the time. I consider it a very good year, honestly, if I can break about even on what I buy versus what I sell. If I happen to profit, hey, good for me! But most of my enjoyment is in the hunt, not the profit.

Another factor in all of this is the way the selling sites are set up: eBay allows you to list up to fifty items for free every month, and MH$P lets you list a certain number of items per month for fairly low (or no) cost. So once you make the initial investment in putting together the ad, it’s simply a matter of renewing it over and over until the darn thing finally sells.

There’s also the rationale that repetition leads to sales. There’s a reason why shopping channels like QVC "schedule" selling times in one-hour increments. It takes about 30 to 45 minutes of someone telling you how wonderful that kitchen doohickey is, repeatedly, before your brain decides it’s time to pull out the credit card.

I don’t know if that’s the case in the online model horse world, though. Every time I see the same item listed again and again - at the same price, for weeks on end - it makes me not want to deal with that seller, ever. It tells me that something’s wrong, and it’s not necessarily the model’s fault.

(Sometimes it is, but that's another issue entirely.)

Cut the price to something the current market will bear, or take it off the market. "Eat" your failures, and move on. You’ll feel sick in the short term, but you’ll recover.

One Bright Spot

Wow, I had no idea this joint’s been jumpin’ while I was indisposed.

Work continues to not be as profitable as it could be. I’m stuck in the same situation I was last year: I’m getting put into smaller assignments with fewer hours, while less experienced and less accurate people are getting put into larger assignments with more hours.

It’s meant to be a compliment to me that I can be trusted on these smaller assignments (less supervision, more customer interaction), and not just lumped into the pool of available bodies. The downside is that working these "premium" assignments doesn’t come with any "premium" pay. It’s the same hourly rate, regardless, and (usually) no compensation for mileage.

So found myself in a situation last week where I would have had to drive 80 miles for 2 hours of work, while others were driving 50 miles for 10 hours of work. (That situation was resolved, more or less, but not without a lot of unnecessary kvetching by all parties.)

I did almost end up with 40 hours last week - a fine accomplishment, if it wasn’t for the fact that there was a not-insignificant number of people who ended up with more overtime last week than I had for all of last year.

And they wonder why I’ve been in a less than pleasant mood when I’ve been calling the office lately? I can do without the "honor" of making less money.

On to more pleasant subjects. Like the arrival of my latest grail, who I had the great pleasure of opening up last night:


(Yes, I know, the desk is mess.)

Yep, the WEG Traditional Man o’ War re-issue, one of only 48. Isn’t he beautiful? I feel extremely lucky to have gotten him at all: I just happened to hop on the Internet at just the right time. Another minute or two more, and I doubt I would have even seen him at all.

It’s a little hard to tell from my photograph, but he’s definitely a darker and richer shade of red chestnut than I’ve seen on most Traditional Man o’ Wars. A lot of them tend toward the orange or even pink, but this shade is much closer to the one they’ve been using on more recent releases like the Foundation Stallion Toreo, but without the metallic undertones.

Another difference: most of the original releases also have a mane and tail that are either slightly darker, or slightly grayer, than the body color, but the WEG MOW’s mane and tail are almost exactly the same shade as the body. It wasn’t a problem unique to him; a lot of earlier Breyer Chestnuts tended to have significantly darker mane and tails, a consequence of the company’s early inability to distinguish between Bay and Chestnut (and later between Chestnut and Red Dun, with Yellow Mount.)

The most obvious difference is the head, with the extra shading and the masked facial marking. And there’s the tag, too.

I was amazed that I got the Man o’ War for the price that I did, especially since the mold’s fortunes seem to be on the upswing lately. He’ll probably be the only WEG re-issue I’ll be owning in the near future (and possibly) distant future, however; the prices people are asking for many of the other super-limited WEG re-issues are somewhere in the ridiculous level. ($500 for the Haflinger, that’s barely distinguishable from the SR Strikey? Girlfriend, please.)

Stock Market

Good, good day at the flea market today - lots of cheap, cool stuff, just the way I like it. I could have easily blown my whole wad, without much effort, on things like "Pajamas of Oriental Splendor" (seriously, that’s what the box said!), a chunk of petrified wood, or an animatronic Elvis head (no joke.) I decided to stick to my core competencies: Breyers, books, and minis.

(No pic today - it’s late enough as it is, and my time management skills apparently went on vacation sometime last week. Anyone who’s still waiting on a package or e-mail from me, I am working on it!)

Other than the indiscretion with the Valentine and Heartbreaker set, I’ve been so good with my money over the past two weeks. I’ve been rooting around the deepest, darkest corners of my closets before venturing out shopping, and rocking the coupons when I do have to set foot in the nearest enclosed retail compound.

Money is probably my least favorite topic to talk about in regards to the horses, especially in the contentious area of estimated price or value.

I am not completely uninterested in how much certain models are worth, but I am a little disturbed at how obsessed many hobbyists are with tracking prices - creating spreadsheets, graphs and flowcharts, like it’s the stock market. It is, kinda, but I’ve never been one to think of my horses as that crucial a part of my investment portfolio. (If I come close to breaking even, I’ll be happy.) Its mutable nature also turns me away: my time is better spent tracking down the unknown - and there’s a whole lot of that, in Breyer History - than keeping track of the unknowable.

When pressed, I can spit out the necessary numbers for you, and I’m usually not too far off the mark. I work in inventory services, and any one who works in that industry develops an almost savant-like ability to estimate price and quantity with just a quick glance. But as a general rule, I’m more interested in figuring out the "why" than the "how much".

Like with the Traditional Spirits and Rains: I do not particularly care in how much they’re "worth," except for the fact that their going prices are preventing me from adding them to my collection. I already have a Rain - the Lady Liberty BreyerFest SR from a couple years back - but I never got around to getting a Spirit when I could. (Technically I did own a Ringmaster - for about a week. It was a pick-up for a friend.)

I think there are a number of factors in play with the Spirit and Rain prices. One, neither mold has been in production for three years: that’s an eternity, nowadays. Two, there have been limited number of releases on each mold - two for Rain, and three for Spirit - and because of the cartoonish aspects of the molds, not a lot of future releases seem likely. And three, it’s the movie, silly: movie merchandise sells, and animated movie merchandise sells really well. A quick visit to the toy department at Kmart, Target or Walmart can tell you that.

The fact that the models are fairly good representations of the characters as they appear in the film also helps. (As they say in the industry, they’re very "on model.") That would help explain why the secondary market for the Classic and Stablemates Spirit merchandise isn’t quite as superheated. Out of its proper context (box and/or accessories) there’s nothing to distinguish them from any other Breyer Classic Mustang releases. There’s no mistaking the Traditional Spirit and Rain for anything other than what they’re supposed to be.

That’s also another reason why I have to roll my eyes whenever I see a hobbyist kvetching about Spirit’s eyebrows: you know, if it wasn’t for those eyebrows, you wouldn’t be able to sell your MIB Spirit for 150 dollars now, would you?

Here We Go, Again

A sellout in less than five minutes for Be Mine? Looks like the online ordering mode for Web Specials might not be the solution we were hoping for. At least it’s taking the scalpers a couple of hours longer to get them to eBay this time around.

It was kinda nice though, sitting out this round. Even if I really had little choice in the matter.

I totally skipped out on all the Super Bowl brouhaha, too. We don’t "do" football postseasons around here. When your hometown team is the Detroit Lions, well, you know…

I did watch a couple of the commercials. The Chrysler one with Eminem was spot on: no talking smack about the "D," if you ain’t from around here! (They did anyway - I couldn’t believe that folks on some of the forums I lurk were claiming that the shots of Detroit in the commercial were "Photoshopped" to make Detroit look better than it is. Dudes, seriously, "Robocop" was a movie.)

Other than that, I had a nice, quiet weekend. Tried - and failed - to make some cookies (ate the leftover dough.) Finished up a couple of old quilt projects, and figured out how to draft another (a complicated Grandmother’s Fan variation.) I haven’t paid much attention to the horses, other than some board lurking.

I did make one recent acquisition I’ll talk about in much greater detail in a week or so; I want to spend a little more quality time with it before I post anything about it. (And the follow up to the molded-on tack discussion. I haven't forgotten, I just keep getting sidetracked!)

For no reason whatsoever, here’s a picture of one of my oldest and dearest test colors, a Classic Black Ruffian:


I got her at Model Horse Congress in 1986; Bentley Sales Company was having a silent auction for her at their sales booth. My winning bid was $40 - not a huge sum today but back then, and for me, that was a considerable chunk of change.

Yes, I was truly, madly and deeply in love with her. Still am, even if she isn’t all that different from a regular run Ruffian of the same vintage.

In comparison, the Special Run light flaxen chestnut Proud Arabian Mare that the Bentleys sold at Congress the year before went for $11.99. (I should have taken a picture of the box they were literally dumped in. Scary! Thank goodness they were totally cool with handpicking.)

If you did some digging in their factory-fresh dump bins, you could have lucked out and got some tests and recent SRs for even less - $6.00 Traditionals, $3.00 Classics, and $1.00 Stablemates. Most of them were a little dinged - they were straight from the factory, wrapped in a plastic bag and literally tossed in a box - so you really couldn’t complain.

I Hate My Teef!

Don’t be alarmed if you see me listing a lot of items for sale on MH$P in the next few days; I have a rather large dental bill coming due soon, and while I can pay it, I’d rather not pull money from the savings account to do it.

But I’m not selling the Glossy All Glory. Selling it would just about cover the cost of the bill, free and clear, but that’s not something I’m even going to contemplate. I don’t enter contests like that for the money. I do it for the satisfaction of accomplishing something. Period. The money will just have to come from somewhere else.

That somewhere else is… my BreyerFest leftovers. Not a lot of excitement there - some nice pieces, but nothing that’ll generate a lot of cash quickly. One good Chalky, some decent reference material leftovers, a few okay bodies, some TRU Specials and not very recent regular runs. Sigh. Maybe I’ll get lucky at the flea market this weekend. (Yeah, that’s it, let’s think positive!)

Actually, I don’t mind dwelling in the "bottom" of the OF Breyer market. There’s a whole lot less chance for fraud there. Sure, I’ve had my share of scammers - like the lady who faked a near-death experience to get out of paying for a measly $17 horse on eBay - but nothing that’s risen to the level of out-and-out grifting. Which I think might have been going on with that whole Glossy Prize Nokota nonsense being discussed on Blab recently.

The thread, if you want to read it: Glossy Nokota Transaction Gone Bad

And if you can't or don’t want to read it, the summary: very young girl with obvious limited knowledge of the hobby and of Glossy Prize Models attempted to scam several hobbyists, simultaneously, with both real Glosses she scammed from other hobbyists, and with Fakes. Possibly in collusion with her father, whose attempts at recompense may or may not have been intentionally ill-worded.

Every once and a while I’m going to "get lucky" and find something pretty sweet that I can make a lot of moolah on, but the lower end of the market is my bread and butter. Five dollars here, twenty dollars there: it doesn’t seem like much, but I make it up in volume. I did pretty well at BreyerFest this year with my sales - the best sales in several years, in fact - and I don’t think I sold any individual item for more than 50 dollars. I managed to cover most of my expenses, and if it wasn’t for my dental issues, the remainder of those expenses would have been paid off by next month.

While I’d like to get as much money as I can for whatever I find in the secondary market, I’d rather just take a smaller cut and rotate the stock out. Nothing irritates me more than seeing some of the same horses listed over and over on eBay or MH$P. The word "shopworn" comes to mind: not the physical damage done to merchandise while it sits on the shelf unsold, but to the perception of the item in the marketplace. Some shoppers may start getting the impression that there must be something wrong with it if it hasn’t sold yet - above and beyond the price, which is the usual reason a good model doesn’t sell in a timely manner.

I’d rather take a smaller profit or sell it at a loss. If someone else wants to try and get the rest of the value out of it, they can be my guest.

On a more personal note, I’d like to note the passing of one of our "part-time" kitties. His "house name" was Jasmine, but we called him Sumo, for rather obvious reasons:


Teeny head, big body! (With an adorable, tiny kitten voice to match.) He and his little brother Hoover technically lived next door with the neighbors, but spent so much time in our yard - either hanging out on the porch, or cruising for vermin in the garden - that we always referred to them as our "part-time" cats. (Our neighborhood is fairly secluded with low traffic, but they never ventured very far. There was no need: the squirrels and chipmunks were fat and plentiful.)

He was the most lovable cat in the history of cats. If you were outside for more than five minutes, you’d be greeted with either a vigorous leg rub or a head butt that would just about knock you over from the 20 pounds of weight behind it.

I had been so wrapped up in my own issues that I hadn’t noticed the lack of recent personal appearances, and the neighbors hadn’t been super social lately. I’d seen Hoover sunning himself on the driveway, and just assumed all was well. I knew he had been getting up in years - 15 or 16 years old or so - and was not as nimble as he once was, and just assumed for those reasons that he had been made a permanent indoor kitty.

Goodbye, my happy Sumo. May the squirrels and chipmunks be fatter and even more plentiful in the afterlife.