Average

No "extra special" models in my BreyerFest leftovers box, and no "Let’s Celebrate!" e-mail either. My luck hasn’t been running that way lately; my kind is of the more mundane, day-to-day variety. Here’s a sampling - minus some books, some bodies, and some non-modelly stuff - of the kind of things I’ve found locally, since July:

The best pieces here would be the Chalky Family Foal, the Kitten (with a Blue Ribbon sticker!) and the Hagen-Renaker Elephant minis. The PAM is the two-sock version and extremely nice as well. As awesome as my flea market is, a lot of this stuff has come from elsewhere; the Mortens Dobie and the Elephants were Salvation Army finds, for instance. I travel a lot for work, and one of the "perks" is that I drive past a lot of thrift stores and hobby shops in places I’d normally never go. And as long as I’m there…

Sometimes I do get lucky - like that big bin of Hartlands last year, or the shoebox full of vintage H-R miniatures earlier this season. But most days, it’s little drips and drabs. My luck is in living in the area that I do, with its abundance of stores and merchandise. It’s not free and clear, though: I have to put the legwork in and the money out.

It’s something a lot of people don’t like to think about - and will argue to the contrary - but luck is unevenly distributed. It’s most noticeable, and painful, in situations where there’s nothing you can do to improve your odds, like hard work or patience.

Like raffles. There are hobbyists who have won raffles multiple times, and others who have never once been drawn for any raffle ever - online, in person, or by mail.

Except for the fact that I’ve never been pulled from a wait list for anything ever, I’d consider my luck about average with raffles. Actually, I calculated it, and it is. Back when Connoisseurs were the thing, I was curious to know how many a hobbyist should be able to win, on average. I had access to some numbers, ran them, and yep, I was right on the money with my "wins".

Others, as I mentioned above, haven’t been as average. This is one of the reasons - and not out of the quality of my personal luck - why I think Reeves needs to continue to offer rare and extra special models via multiple distribution methods. Some should be by raffle, or by raffle-to-purchase, others by contest or competition, by simple subscription, or on a first-come-first-served basis.

If you’re not a creative type, contests and competitions will do you no favors. If you don’t have a predictable cash flow, subscriptions or first-come-first-served offers won’t work for you. No one distribution method is more "fair" than another: the only way to make things more fair is to mix it up, release to release.

The only thing I think should not be repeated is the raffle-to-purchase of extra-low piece run Specials online. It basically creates a "money for nothing" situation: because there’s no cost to enter, and there’s a small window of time between winning and having to pay, it’s theoretically possible to make a tidy profit with no monetary investment on your end at all. It creates an incentive for otherwise uninterested people to enter to resell.

While selling off low piece runs via vault sales has had some major issues as well (traffic volume and shopping cart issues, ahem) the notion of having to put money down up front seems to cut down on the initial speculating, at least a little. It seems more likely to me that they’ll go the "Buried Treasure" route with those goodies, instead. Which is not fair to folks who have Internet time or access, or who take the occasional nap. (Happened to me once, it did!)

Not sure if my luck will hold out with the weather in the morning; last weekend was really good to me, so I'm not all that worried or invested in it.

The White Moose

Lots of news in the past few days, but I think I’ll finish up the Moose story first.

He arrived around lunchtime today, but I won’t be opening him until tomorrow afternoon, to cap off my crazy work week. I have been looking at some of the online pictures of everyone else’s, and I have to say that I’m very impressed: Reeves really went all out on the details, especially the hyper-detailed blue eyes.

It makes me wonder if the Moose - along with the Vault Sale Kitten Angel - might be precursor/harbinger/test of a super-premium Special Run program? It’s easier to manage the quality control and consistency on very small (less than 100) piece runs, and they’d also be able to offer items targeted to narrow hobbyist niches - the kind of niches that tend to have very high quality expectations anyway.

For those of you who don’t Blab, the origins of Ghost might have started in a discussion thread about the Special Run "Alpine" back in late 2010. When we first heard about Alpine - who was later revealed to be a Silver Filigree Esprit - all we had was the name. Speculation ran rampant about who/what Alpine could be, with a very vocal faction cheerleading long and hard for …a White Moose.

(Which I discussed here.)

I still stand by my assertion back then that there’s probably no way they could have sold 250 pieces of the Moose: the market for the Nonhorse molds, especially within the hobby, is not big. Most buyers/collectors of those molds exist slightly off to the side of the hobby spectrum and probably don’t bother with belonging to any clubs or programs. The only time they encounter Special Run items like Ghost is on the rare chance that they show up "in the wild" - at an estate sale/auction, or maybe on eBay.

While Special Run items for Nonhorse molds (outside of the Cattle and Pigs) have been fairly uncommon, Test Colors are even moreso. They do exist - you all know I’ve been around long enough to have seen almost everything - but when they do show up, they tend to cause quite a stir, even among hobbyists who aren’t normally into that sort of thing.

There are several reasons why Nonhorse Tests are so uncommon.

As I explained above, it’s partly because of the market: it’s not a big one. Until the advent of Internet niche marketing, there hasn’t been much of an incentive to test out new colors and ideas on these molds.

Second, the nature of the Nonhorse market prior to the Internet era was very different from the Horse market. The Nonhorse molds were slow and steady sellers: they didn’t need to change colors or experiment as often. They’d just run whatever they needed when the stock ran low, which wasn’t necessarily every year.

And thirdly, the target market for these molds wouldn’t have responded to change or variety as enthusiastically as the Horse market does, either. While hobbyists are going to be open to the idea of a White or Pinto Moose, nonhobbyists looking to buy a Moose figurine are looking for one in some shade of brown. End of story.

Wasn’t expecting Reeves to make one, but glad they did anyway. Perhaps the FAS Yellow Man o’ War of my dreams isn’t so improbable after all?

Right Place, Right Time

What a strange day that was.

On the way home from work in the morning, I had to make a split-second decision: faster, or shorter? If I took the freeway, I’d get home sooner, but if I took the shortcut, I’d save about five miles. I turned left, and took the shorter route.

It should have been an inconsequential decision, one that we make by the dozens every day. But it turned out to be a huge one that left me rather…well, you’ll see.

A few miles down the road I took, a flurry of official vehicles flew by: cop cars, fire trucks, emergency vehicles. I turned on the radio to listen to the traffic report, and before the sounds of the last siren had faded, I found out that the section of freeway that I would have been on had I taken the faster route was completely shut down due to a roll-over accident.

I was relieved that I had - by sheer luck - missed being in a very bad accident, or at the very least stuck in traffic for hours. Then I felt bad for feeling happy that I had avoided the situation, when clearly someone else had not. And then I started feeling anxious imagining what would have happened if I had taken the freeway instead.

Suddenly, my "slightly shorter" drive became very, very long.

I somehow managed to make it home without incident, almost in time for lunch. I decided to hop on the computer for the few minutes lunch was still baking in the oven, and I logged onto Blab to check up on the latest crises, only to see…

Another "Buried Treasure" type Special Run on the Breyer web site? An albino Moose named Ghost? Holy goldfish!

I clicked on the link, completely expecting the item to be sold out by then: it had been at least an hour and a half since the first post had been made in the discussion thread, and it was not a short one, either. Kind of a bummer, but if I could at least get a screen shot for my records, I’d be okay with that.

Wait - they were still available?

Click-click-click-click-click-click-click-click-click-click-send. 

I go upstairs to have lunch and discuss my drive home, with my family. (Except the dog, who is at the doggy beauty salon getting her hair and nails done. Hence the late lunch/early dinner.)

Then I go back downstairs to confirm that what just happened just happened. And it did.

I was extremely lucky yesterday. There really is no other explanation for it.

I have to admit, though, that I’m feeling some ambivalence about buying the Moose, now. It almost feels like I’m celebrating not being in an accident, and that doesn’t feel quite right.

More in a couple days, when the stupor finally dissipates.

Clicking Through

Gotta keep it simple today - in addition to trying to work on my BreyerFest paperwork (about half done - yay!) I’ve had to deal with a lot of untidy personal stuff, too. (Identity theft, again. Why do so many people find it awesome to be me? Trust me, it ain’t. Well, most of the time.)

I seem to have forgotten to talk about the survey that was offered to Vintage Club members to help choose, presumably, one of the 2013 Club offerings. For those of you who aren’t in the Vintage Club, or missed the news entirely, the choices were:

• Gloss Alabaster Quarter Horse Gelding
• Matte Smoke Five-Gaiter
• Gloss "Dark Dapple Gray" Running Stallion
• Gloss Wild Dapple Gray Man o’ War

Naturally, I picked the Man o’ War. I was a little hesitant at first, since he’s awfully close to the original - and fabled - Dapple Gray Man o’ Wars from the early 1970s. I figured that the paint job is different enough from them - Gloss instead of Matte, "wild" dappling instead of lacey and shaded - and the chances of me being able to afford one of those originals is pretty slim.

Based on the online commentary I’ve seen, though, I’m guessing the Running Stallion has the best shot of winning that poll. The Five-Gaiter has a Matte Finish, which rules him out, and both the Man o’ War and the QH Gelding have molded-on halters, which is also big no-no for some people. Among a lot of collectors, too, there’s this desire towards "complete" families, so a Dark Dapple Gray Running Stallion to match the Mare and Foal would seem like the most logical choice.

I would be okay with him, too, though I’d hope then that the others might be offered in some way, too - either as Made-to-Orders or Buried Treasures. (Actually, what I REALLY wanted is the Stretched Morgan in the Appaloosa Performance Horse colorway in the group shot accompanying the newsletter. I have a feeling we haven’t seen the last of him, though.)

Speaking of, apparently Reeves received enough questions about the Buried Treasures - and the "Second Chance" models - to address the issues on its Frequently-Asked-Questions page:

Q24: I heard about some web specials being offered again to members of the Collector Club. What is a "Second Chance" offer?

Recently, we offered our Collector Club members a second chance at purchasing select web special models. We’ve noticed a few questions come up regarding this, and would like to take the opportunity to clear a few things up

Breyer only makes the stated number of special run models. In the event that an individual drawn to purchase a special run isn’t able to purchase, we then select someone from the wait list. However, we do not keep our wait lists indefinitely, and in some cases the individuals chosen do not complete their order. This leaves us with extra web special models (which are not rejects or damaged returns), which we may choose to offer to our Collector Club members; giving them a "second chance" at getting their hands on these great models!

Our recent "second chance" offers (offered at the end of April 2012) were announced on our Facebook and Twitter pages, and were also listed in the Member’s Only section of the website, which can be viewed once you’re logged in as a Collector Club member on BreyerHorses.com. "Second chance" models were offered exclusively to Collector Club members, and limited to one "second chance" model per purchase, while supplies lasted.

So keep your eye on the Member’s Only section of the website and Breyer’s Twitter and Facebook pages, as we may periodically offer specials and surprises like these offers to our members!

Please note – offers and promotions may or may not be advertised in advance.

I like how they tacitly admit at the end of the explanation that more Buried Treasures and other special offers are in the offing. Way to cultivate them page clicks!

Note some of the (other) interesting wording here:

Breyer only makes the stated number of special run models.

I take this statement with a grain of salt. I think they strive to distribute the "stated number" of pieces, but that doesn’t account for returns/replacements for damages. For the record, I believe the shortage/overage on most special runs is very small - a handful of pieces, at most. I’d hesitate to call them statistically insignificant, because it certainly doesn’t feel insignificant if you’re one of the lucky ones who manages to catch one of these stragglers - or just misses out on getting one.

[E]xtra web special models (which are not rejects or damaged returns)

I know it’s considered an "accepted fact" that Reeves redistributes damaged returns, but that’s simply not the case, and it’s a little depressing that they have to point this out on the web site. However, this also does not rule out models that were return out of simple dissatisfaction - aka "buyer’s remorse" - which does happen from time to time.

My Birthday Buckskin

I was a little annoyed at first when I saw this week’s schedule: What do you mean, no overtime? I was just getting used to the not-sleeping thing!

Then I realize, duh, I could actually do things like answer e-mails and open packages, which made it not so bad.

So I finally did open my Buried Treasure: oh, is he purty. Really one of the nicest buckskin paint jobs I’ve seen in a long time, which my photograph (and Reeves’, on the web site) in no way can convey:

Warm, shaded, shimmery - now that’s buckskin, baby!

He has a slight eartip rub from the funky packaging - bagged, bubblewrapped, loosely tossed in a box - but other than that, I have no complaints. Actually, I can’t stop staring at him, he’s just that nice. I want to see this color on everything, right now. Even on the Creepy Kitten, if it’s possible.

There’s no VIN number, no belly stamps, and no certificates, so with the addition of the cobbled together packaging, that pretty much tells us that they were painted in New Jersey. 

As I was updating my research files, I noticed an interesting "something" about the issue numbers: the Glossy Joeys were issue number 712073; the Buried Treasure - Lusitano is issue number 712074.

Hmm, okay. I guess that means that they were something a little more recent after all - since the planning stages of the Glossy Joey giveaway, at least.

They must have had a substantial number of Foundation Stallion bodies left over after they ran the 2010 Mid-States Special Run Thunderbolts. Aside from being the most recent production piece on the Foundation Stallion mold, it also had an odd piece run - 2900 pieces, instead of a more standard 2500 or 3000.

I had figured that the Joeys had come out of bodies leftover from the Thunderbolt run; the Buried Treasures must have come out of the leftovers of the leftovers.  

This raises an interesting possibility: will future Buried Treasures come out of Reeves’ leftover body bins? They had enough of some unpainted older bodies - like the Stock Horse Stallion, the Belgian, the Clydesdale Mare, and Gem Twist - to sell them in box lots of "whiteware" at BreyerFest a couple years ago.

Interest in them was tepid, at best.

Now that they’ve seen success in putting a simple, yet well executed paint job on an older mold - and marketing it as an extremely limited surprise special run - I can’t imagine them not trying it again.