The Rare Ones?

All the blankets have been claimed; the first ones will be out the door Saturday morning. I would have gotten them out earlier, but the anti-inflammatory medication I am on for the busted foot has been totally pwning me the past few days. I am feeling much better today, though, and I have the weekend off to stay off my feet as much as I should!

Like many other hobbyists, I am skeptical about the final count numbers for the BreyerFest Pop the Cork Nokota Horses. Here are the official numbers straight from the Facebook page, for those of you who don’t venture there:

Pop the Cork – Special Run Surprise – 2700 total
711181 A - Palomino Pinto (720 Matte, 155 Glossy)
711181 B - Bay (660 Matte, 120 Glossy)
711181 C - Chestnut Pinto (540 Matte, 120 Glossy)
711181 D - Varnish Roan Appaloosa (240 Matte, 120 Glossy)
711181 E - Silver Charm - 25 pieces

Even though I only had two SR tickets, at one point or another I had each of the four colors in Matte Finish. I came home with the Appaloosa and the two Pintos ; I traded my Bay for the Appaloosa early on - not because I had heard it was the "Rare" one, but because Varnish Roan Appaloosas make me do that kind of thing.

I actually really, really liked my Bay - and if I had had a choice, it would have picked a Bay in Gloss. There was no luck this year on the Glosses for me - or any of the Rarities - which is what I expected to happen. I’ve had really good luck the past couple of years with the Surprises - including a Gloss, and a Low-Piece Run item - so figured it was about time for it to peter out.

(The only Rarity that made me wince just a tiny bit was the Silver Bear Set. But I’ll get to that another day.)

The rumor of the Appaloosa Nokota being the "Rare" one got started very early - what I was told was that it was announced at the Open Show? - but it was pretty obvious by the end of Friday that there were way more Appaloosas than you’d expect to see if they were truly The Rare Ones. The one I didn’t see at all on Friday was the Overo Pinto, whatever color it’s supposed to be. (The one listed as "C", above. I think it's Silver Bay, but I’ve seen it described as both Smutty Palomino and Flaxen Chestnut.) I didn’t see one until late Saturday morning at the Horse Park, when someone offered me one at cost - and I jumped at it!

The Model Horse Blab poll was very good at predicting which one was The Rare One last year (the Blue Roan Tovero Roxy), and this year’s results point to…the Overo. I did some quick and dirty surveys on eBay and it also seem to back up our suspicions: I see only half as many of the Overos compared to any other color, save the Silver Charms.

So either there’s some really strange sampling errors happening, or Reeves got their numbers wrong. Or what I think is most likely: they’re giving us the numbers for what they "ordered", but that’s not what the factory gave them. Maybe the Overo and the Appaloosa production quantities were switched? Everything comes wrapped in opaque bags, so it’s not like they’d be able to know when they open the boxes, either.

Just another mystery for history, I suppose. Fortunately for me, the only one that I need to find (again) is the Matte Bay, who doesn’t seem like he’ll be too hard to locate affordably. (Just not now - I need to sell some stuff STAT!) Not even going to think about the Glosses, unless some amazing trade deal gets tossed my way.