Sunday, March 19, 2023

Risk Assessments

Like everyone else, I’m a little gobsmacked by the final selling price of the Sample Paddy, and making side eye at some of the Samples sitting on my shelf, like my Nosferatu, that sweet BreyerFest Aintree with the handpainted battleship gray hooves, or the one that (I think) would probably bring the biggest bucks right now, the Wedgewood Brighty Nugget:

An extra 2K in the bank account would not be unappreciated! 

But this situation also gives further lie to the currently accepted wisdom that the market is on a bit of a downturn. The people who had the money to spend on thousand-dollar Alborozos still have money to spend… on other things.

There was a little more going on here than just that, obviously. First and foremost is provenance: there is little reason to doubt that a model purchased straight from Reeves is not what it is advertised as. 

Some of the things I’ve seen advertised as Tests or Samples lately – models that are very clearly just minor variations, or very obviously Shrinkies – do make me wonder about my fellow hobbyists. Do the sellers genuinely think their items are what they claim them to be, or are they pushing the truth envelope and gambling on low-information hobbyists to make the call in their favor?

(I’d rather not believe the latter, but I also know better!)

The other big thing going on here is that the Cleveland Bay mold has been having its moment since BreyerFest, when it was revealed to be the Rotating Draft Surprise. And, of course, it was a St. Patrick’s Day themed model whose auction closing date was on St. Patrick’s Day. 

As I mentioned above, I already have a lot of Samples, so this one was no temptation. I even have a Sample Cleveland Bay somewhere (the 2012 BreyerFest SR Tunbridge Wells, if you are curious.) The provenance might be shaky on some of mine, but I’ve also not spent much more than store retail ($35-70) for them either. 

They were within my acceptable level of risk, and I recommend anyone else also aspiring to add a Sample or two to their herds to also assess their risk levels, and plan accordingly. 

It should come as no surprise that the Sample Brighty is on my Collectibility show string short list; the Breed documentation is finished, and I’m hoping to finish the Collectibility part tonight. 

And in closing, it should also come as no surprise that I was not picked for Magpie. I suppose that means I should now order my Vintage Club Secretariat. Will it be a Gold Charm? I wish, but probably not!

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't base any values using these eBay auctions from Breyer. The ones they've listed during Breyerfest go stupid high, and now this one.

People just throw money out like crazy when it's coming strait from them. And other copies sit unsold. I don't believe the Solar they sold was listed as a sample. Sold for over a thousand while other copies sat in selling at $500.

Suzanne said...

Obviously I enjoy your blog, but otherwise I don't keep track of what Breyer is up to. My interest in the hobby is both love of the models themselves, and fascination that they even exist. Even the plainest little black pinto Western Pony is a miracle to me, because how did a plastic toy like that manage to survive all these decades? But I have to hand it to Breyer to have pulled such a stunt! I'm picturing some of the high bidders, surrounded by empty Guinness bottles...