Surprise Speculation

If I didn’t get drawn for the weird Decorator Bighorn Ram Montana, the likelihood of me getting selected for the latest Birds of a Feather release Cardinal is nonexistent:

A pretty Flaxen Red Chestnut on a Shannondell? Even though they upped the piece count to 500, I am not getting my hopes up. 

Speaking of Drafts, it’s probably a good time for my brief discussion/analysis of this year’s BreyerFest Surprise Model, which they’ve dubbed “Rotating Draft Surprise”.

The more cynical among us are thinking this is yet another head fake, the same way last year’s “Seven Arts Surprise” ultimately didn’t involve seven different variations. While it’s true that the Surprises aren’t always what their names lead us to think they are (I did not see the Bollywood Surprise Latigos coming) sometimes, they are. 

For the 2018 Off to the Races “Dark Horse Surprise”, they not only used a racing-appropriate mold – Smarty Jones – the rarity was the Solid Black: an actual “Dark Horse”!

So I think a Draft Horse is a strong possibility this year. It’s about time for one, anyway. 

To get the usual formalities out of the way: the “rotating” part will have nothing to do with that long-held BreyerFest fantasy of multiple molds being used for the Surprise. As I’ve explained before, that would be an absolute nightmare to execute, especially in person, since it would become very obvious what molds are what even in their opaque bags. The only way that’s a viable option would have been virtually, and that opportunity has passed. 

There’s the chance that they’ll interpret that word in a more literal sense, and if that’s the case: say hello to Bobby Jo!

But back to the Drafts: it’s not going to be Othello, and it’s very unlikely to be Georg. Othello not so much because it’s popular, but because it’s been done to death, and coming up with five new colors or takes on previously-used colors is difficult. 

Georg is still too popular. We’ll definitely see him at BreyerFest – either as a Live Show Prize Model (hello, Gloss Theo!) and/or as a Raffle Model. 

Shannondell is a possibility: Georg has stolen a bit of that mold’s thunder, and it’s still new enough that it hasn’t been released in a multitude of colors yet. It also has multiple mane and tail options, which is something we often see with Surprises. But it might be just a tad bit too popular yet.  

Two other choices I think might be possibilities include the always-popular Clydesdale Mare, and Brishen, whose popularity has muted just enough to finally qualify it as a Surprise-level model. Both have been used recently, so that may or may not rule them out.

Goffert and Wixom are slightly better candidates: both are at least moderately popular with solid fanbases, with some color options that haven’t been exploited yet. Goffert’s big with the younger crowd, which is often a factor in Reeves’s mold selection process.

Molds like the Bell-bottomed Shire, Big Butt Belgian, and Roy, with the Friesian Sporthorse and Welsh Cob being draft-adjacent enough to qualify as Surprise candidates, but I’d consider most of them pretty unlikely, though I think the Friesian Sporthorse might turn up as a Surprise in the not-distant future. 

Personally, I’m rooting for either Cleveland Bay or the original Clydesdale Stallion. The Cleveland Bay is modestly popular, comes with multiple mold options, and is popular with at least one member of the staff in New Jersey. 

There hasn’t been a true Vintage Surprise since the very first – the Quarter Horse Gelding in 2009 – and the Clydesdale’s reappearance in Stablemates form has rekindled interest in the mold, who hasn’t come in as many exotic colors as collectors might think.

Of course, the Cleveland Bay was most recently used as the Celebration Horse back in 2019, and the Stablemates Clydesdale is being used as one of the One-Day Stablemates (As a Beer! Hmm?) 

So in short, I have no idea. I’m just happy that it won’t be a complete shot in the dark this time around. For me, there are so many lovely Special Run options this year that knowing who or what the Surprise is, is not going to be a huge factor in my SR selection process. I might even opt out of it entirely, considering how many others are already on my “Must Have” list.