(In spite of my insistence that I wouldn’t, I know.)
They kinda-sorta promised us a Polo Pony of some sort in a blog post back in January – in fact, it was one of the first “hints” they gave us – but I think that’s what makes it unlikely to be the Surprise, in whatever form it takes. There are still a few more Special Runs to go, and Reeves has a habit of saving the most obvious ones for last – like they did with the Gloss Dapple Gray Percheron Versailles, for the French-themed year.
The “Bet you'll never guess which model this is!” clue makes me think it’s a Vintage mold we don’t see very much or very often anymore.
The theory wouldn’t necessarily exclude Legionario (introduced in late 1978), who is the current popular choice for the Surprise.
But wasn’t one of the Chinese factory escapees a while back a Translucent Running Mare? That’s where I’ll put my imaginary betting money, then, since (a) last year’s Surprise assortment included a Translucent Deco, and (b) a Running Mare would be plenty surprising.
Nobody ever expects the Running Mare!
Other than a few Auction pieces, she’s never made an appearance as a BreyerFest Special Run. The majority of her production releases have being either Matte or Solids (and usually both) so in spite of the fact that she has come in over 30 distinct colors over the past 50+ years, there is still a lot of room for experimentation.