BreyerFest Number Crunching

I'm in full BreyerFest Freak Out Mode right now. Just finished the Samplers, printed up all the wallpaper, packed the horses, taking care of last minute appointments and phone calls, started digging out all the assorted decorations and supplies – you'd swear I was getting ready to invade another country. Here's a quick shot of the basement to give you an idea of the state of my preparations:


(The quilt in the frame isn't going with me, though – the basement's the only place in the house big enough to handle the frame.)

I haven't done my cake topper or hat entries yet, and I'm still working on the whole “Ninja Pit of Death” situation (the degree of my involvement, I mean!) but I do appear to be on schedule, if not a little bit ahead of myself. The fact that I'm not working (much) is probably helping here.

The price and piece quantities of the Tent Line SRs was made public yesterday. Forgive me if this is a recap for any of you:

QH Gelding “Surprise” - 1350 (96) $55
Lady Phase “Sprinkles” - 1150 (82) $50
Small Poodle “Cotton Candy” - 600 (42) $40
Porcelain “Party Time” - 700 (50) $150
Idocus “Buttercream” - 1250 (89) $65
Newsworthy “Cupcake” - 1050 (75) $45
Five-Gaiter “Gala” - 1050 (75) $60
Arabian Mare “Make a Wish” - 1350(96) $65

The total estimated piece count: 8500 items. If there are 300 ticket holders for 14 ticket times, that's 8400 “reserved” pieces. (I'm just guessing based on previous years' counts.) Not everyone redeems their tickets, and not everyone redeems the full amount, so theoretically there should be enough for everyone. Not for every model, but for any models.

The number in parenthesis after the piece count is the approximate number of pieces available per ticket time (there are 14 ticket times, total.) Some of the numbers don't divide evenly – some get held back to cover a limited number of returns or other problems, and others get thrown into other ticket times. We're talking a dozen or less models of any release, so the overage in any one time slot would not be noticeable (unless you happen to be behind the person who gets the last piece of the model you wanted!)

And let me emphasize the word approximate: just because they say there's going to be 1050 pieces available doesn't mean there's going to be 1050 in the market. In addition to pieces made to cover damaged models, additional pieces may be made for dealer packs and gifts. There may be more, there may be less. We're not talking amounts that would affect the perceived rarity or value, since the piece counts are already of a decent size.

For the mathematically challenged, that'll be approximately 450 QH Geldings of each of the three color – one of the lowest piece counts for a Tent SR in years, if you're going strictly by color, but one of the highest piece counts if you count it as a single release (ah, the beauty of the Gambler's Choice!)

Nothing else in the available data really stands out, though I am a bit surprised that Sprinkles is among the cheaper offerings, while Buttercream is among the more expensive – more expensive than the much-buzzed-about Blue Tortuga Five-Gaiter Gala, who also has a lower piece count, to boot. Odd. Makes me wonder if they're going to be doing something special with the Buttercream, like throw in random glossies or make him a Chalky. (Wishful thinking on my part, mostly.)

The Make a Wish Arabian Mare also has a high piece count – and relatively high price. She's the real wild card here: BreyerFest is literally going to be the first time we're going to see her “in the flesh.” All we've seen of her, both at tour stops and online, is a heavily Photoshopped picture with a mane and tail that's pretty obviously a drawing. We should all know better than to judge a model from its official photographs.

That's why though I have already made my preliminary choices, they may change once I get to see them in person. Let's all remember the lesson of the 2005 Galahad: he seemed pleasant enough in photographs, but nothing outstanding. Then we saw him in person – and wow, what a looker! He's still one of my all-time BreyerFest favorites.