The Choices

Got my BreyerFest ticket order in. Just one VIP ticket: the Fell Pony Scurry and the Lady Phase and Standing Stock Foal set Surrey and Axle as my SRs, and Via Lattea and the Best of BreyerFest set as my Limiteds. 

It’s nothing I think will sell out or be overly popular – I feel like the only ticket buyer who didn’t pick either a Speos or a Wells – so while it might not have been specifically necessary, having all this stuff prepaid is always a load off my mind. I can just go and enjoy the event. And maybe finally focus on finding those Hess Belgians that kept eluding me last year. 

(The list: Gloss Dapple Gray and/or Dapple Black, a Darker-Than-Average Smoke, and an older Chestnut with painted eye whites!)

I am a little underwhelmed by this year’s Stablemate Buggy, another Appaloosa on the Django mold:

While the mold looks good in any color, the fact that the Standing Friesian mold has now come in three different Appaloosa patterns, but still no variation of Black yet… well, it’s getting a little silly. 

I know they do it because spotted horses sell better than solid ones, but considering how pretty (and well-received!) last year’s Glossy Dappled Black Volunteer Model Zeitgeist turned out, you’d think that would have been an obvious choice for a driving-themed Stablemates Friesian release. 

I’ll still get him, because I am not one to pass up a nice bay roan anything, but this is one of those so obvious exceptions to the rule that it makes me want to throw my hands up in the air and just go “Gah!”

(A lot of things have been making me do that lately, to be honest. I wish there was a polite way to tell people they’re being dumb, because that would come in super handy right now.)

That, and the obvious lack of Old Timer in the lineup. While there is a slim possibility of it being the Surprise – it’s probably one of the few true “vintage” molds that is popular enough to work – they tend to go with more recent molds. 

The only vintage mold used for the BreyerFest Surprises was the very first one back in 2009: the Quarter Horse Gelding. Who I think they went with because they were still uncertain that the idea would even work.

(Laughs hysterically.)

If I get another ticket, I think I’ll shoot for Peanutine and the Surprise. The former because it would be easy to sell if I don’t fall in love with it, and the latter because I like (or love) most of the stronger mold possibilities, such as Smart Chic Olena and Forever Saige. And if it’s not something I love, passing the redemption ticket onto someone who does won’t be a hardship either. 

Full of Surprises

I signed up for BVG Live again this year, and if I can find anyone to take me up on it, I might make a weekend of it. Anyone want to go antiquing and axe throwing with me? 

I’ll probably stick to just two divisions this year: OF Mini and Collectability. I managed to do three last year, but I think it was just a tad too much, and I wanted to focus on Minis this time around anyway.

As for guesses on the BreyerFest “Stagecoach Surprise”, stagecoach horses were just coincidentally one of things we were talking about at our dinner table at Ponies & Palm Trees. 

(We were quite a distance from the Reeves table, so I doubt they heard any of it. The decision on the mold and colors would have been made by then so it would have been moot, regardless.)

Contrary to popular opinion and Hollywood, stagecoach horses tended to be sturdy “Working Western” types – think Quarter Horses, Mustangs, Morgans and some of the less refined Thoroughbred lines – and not Drafts. Occasionally you’d have “fancier” breeds utilized for customers willing to pay extra for the privilege. 

Most stagecoaches traveled at a trot or fast walk, so a lot of the molds hobbyists are suggesting – like Wyatt or Ruffian – would seem a little out of place or character in front of a stagecoach.

So what does that leave as possible candidates? Quite a few molds, actually.

Most likely candidates: Bobby Jo, Geronimo, Smart Chic Olena, Forever Saige, and Desatado.

Less likely candidates: Clock Saddlebred, Brown Sunshine, Ranch Horse, the no-feather version of Gypsy Vanner/Brishen, Idocus and Carrick.

Less likely candidates, but Vintage: San Domingo, Adios, Misty’s Twilight, Indian Pony.

I’m kind of liking the idea of this being a Vintage mold like San Domingo or Adios: they are both modestly popular molds with strong fanbases that still have a number of color options that can be explored. And it would fit in with the Vintage vibe I’m getting from the lineup so far this year.

Personally, I think it’d be something like the SCO, Geronimo, or Saige. I think the Ranch Horse mold would be a perfect fit, but he might not be quite new or popular enough to pull it off. Desatado would also fit the type well, but he seems a little bit too… feisty to be pulling a coach? I’m always up for a new Carrick, but he might be a little too refined.

Anyway, that’s my opinion on the matter, and all the thought I’m going to give to it. I’m not sure if I’m going to take a gamble on the Surprise model this year, with my budget and all.

Lucky Breaks

To give you an idea of just how tired I was this week, I came home from work yesterday, ran a few errands, ate dinner, decided to take a quick nap clutching one of my favorite finds from BreyerFest (as one does), and didn’t wake up for nearly 14 hours.

Here is the model in question, who somehow managed to survive the experience unscathed:

A Glossy Bay Appaloosa Quelle Surprise from a $200 Warehouse Finds Box! Who is, of course, not going anywhere because I almost never get Gloss Surprises, when I manage to actually get a Surprise at all. (The Appaloosa was my second choice after the Perlino that year. The spotting pattern is really nice, and Gloss Dark Bay is never not awesome, duh.)

The rest of that box was also pretty decent:

• BreyerFest 2016 Special Run Furano
• BreyerFest 2021 Crystal Sherman Morgan “Prisma”
• BreyerFest 2018 Special Run Scamper Boxed Set
• BreyerFest 2020 Gloss Cheesecake

I traded the Furano for a Buckskin Pech Merle, and sold the Prisma and the Cheesecake for cost (more or less) at the hotel later in the day. I’m not sure what I’m going to do with the Scamper set yet; he’ll probably be for sale later in the year when I finally (ha!) get my act together and start selling stuff regularly again. 

Other people were not as lucky with their boxes, and others moreso. I believe someone received a box that had both a Purple Gran Cavallo AND a set of Silver Bears. If I had gotten that one, a medical intervention would have ensued, because screaming and fainting would have definitely happened.

But I think I did okay. Better than I expected, anyway. Definitely worth sitting on the pavement for two and a half hours watching Gamera movies. 

Anyway, since my body decided to sleep half a day away, that’s all you’re getting today. More tomorrow, I promise!

The List of Worries

I had been hearing stories, but this one takes the cake: the Special Runs chosen for me involved my first choice, and my last choice? That is… some messed up selection process you’ve got going on this year, Reeves:

I have a hard time believing everything else I selected before Marzipan was sold out during my theoretical time slot before they got to me. That would have included, by the way: the Surprise, Landler, Brahms, Rapunzel, and Elbe and Spree.

(I already had the Bears and Franz coming via the VIP, so I can’t even remember if I had them on my All-Access selection list at all.)

While I think the Marzipan is a leading contender for the Gloss/Matte split, it’s still not enough for me to actually want him, and my luck is not so good with the Gloss/Matte split models anyway.

So yeah, I’ll need to trade that one for literally… anything else. Even one of those Rando/Choose Your Own Adventure tickets they’re sending out to folks who didn’t get a chance to make tiered selections, or who only made limited selections that were sold out prior to their position in line. Otherwise I may end up giving it away, especially if space is already tight in the car. 

Ugh, another thing to worry about. This whole week, I swear. 

To show you how it’s been going so far: I was researching cargo van rentals yesterday. The vehicle is fine, but the service I wanted to get done before the trip (regularly scheduled maintenance type stuff) may not be possible until after the trip, and if I can’t find another place to do it, I’m renting a van.

Not necessarily because of the space, but because – believe it or not – it’s probably my cheapest rental option. I hope it won’t come to that, because I have enough to deal with between now and then, and I do not want to add “driving a rental van through Ohio” to my list of worries.

But anyway, enough about my woes. I have about six pages of the Sampler written, and I’m hoping for another two or three by tomorrow. I’m aiming to have it mostly written and illustrated by the end of the three-day weekend, and save next week for formatting, proofreading and printing. 

Barring another day like today, which was rough. (Much cussing was involved, as was the occasional “Serenity Now!”)

Surprise Speculation

If I didn’t get drawn for the weird Decorator Bighorn Ram Montana, the likelihood of me getting selected for the latest Birds of a Feather release Cardinal is nonexistent:

A pretty Flaxen Red Chestnut on a Shannondell? Even though they upped the piece count to 500, I am not getting my hopes up. 

Speaking of Drafts, it’s probably a good time for my brief discussion/analysis of this year’s BreyerFest Surprise Model, which they’ve dubbed “Rotating Draft Surprise”.

The more cynical among us are thinking this is yet another head fake, the same way last year’s “Seven Arts Surprise” ultimately didn’t involve seven different variations. While it’s true that the Surprises aren’t always what their names lead us to think they are (I did not see the Bollywood Surprise Latigos coming) sometimes, they are. 

For the 2018 Off to the Races “Dark Horse Surprise”, they not only used a racing-appropriate mold – Smarty Jones – the rarity was the Solid Black: an actual “Dark Horse”!

So I think a Draft Horse is a strong possibility this year. It’s about time for one, anyway. 

To get the usual formalities out of the way: the “rotating” part will have nothing to do with that long-held BreyerFest fantasy of multiple molds being used for the Surprise. As I’ve explained before, that would be an absolute nightmare to execute, especially in person, since it would become very obvious what molds are what even in their opaque bags. The only way that’s a viable option would have been virtually, and that opportunity has passed. 

There’s the chance that they’ll interpret that word in a more literal sense, and if that’s the case: say hello to Bobby Jo!

But back to the Drafts: it’s not going to be Othello, and it’s very unlikely to be Georg. Othello not so much because it’s popular, but because it’s been done to death, and coming up with five new colors or takes on previously-used colors is difficult. 

Georg is still too popular. We’ll definitely see him at BreyerFest – either as a Live Show Prize Model (hello, Gloss Theo!) and/or as a Raffle Model. 

Shannondell is a possibility: Georg has stolen a bit of that mold’s thunder, and it’s still new enough that it hasn’t been released in a multitude of colors yet. It also has multiple mane and tail options, which is something we often see with Surprises. But it might be just a tad bit too popular yet.  

Two other choices I think might be possibilities include the always-popular Clydesdale Mare, and Brishen, whose popularity has muted just enough to finally qualify it as a Surprise-level model. Both have been used recently, so that may or may not rule them out.

Goffert and Wixom are slightly better candidates: both are at least moderately popular with solid fanbases, with some color options that haven’t been exploited yet. Goffert’s big with the younger crowd, which is often a factor in Reeves’s mold selection process.

Molds like the Bell-bottomed Shire, Big Butt Belgian, and Roy, with the Friesian Sporthorse and Welsh Cob being draft-adjacent enough to qualify as Surprise candidates, but I’d consider most of them pretty unlikely, though I think the Friesian Sporthorse might turn up as a Surprise in the not-distant future. 

Personally, I’m rooting for either Cleveland Bay or the original Clydesdale Stallion. The Cleveland Bay is modestly popular, comes with multiple mold options, and is popular with at least one member of the staff in New Jersey. 

There hasn’t been a true Vintage Surprise since the very first – the Quarter Horse Gelding in 2009 – and the Clydesdale’s reappearance in Stablemates form has rekindled interest in the mold, who hasn’t come in as many exotic colors as collectors might think.

Of course, the Cleveland Bay was most recently used as the Celebration Horse back in 2019, and the Stablemates Clydesdale is being used as one of the One-Day Stablemates (As a Beer! Hmm?) 

So in short, I have no idea. I’m just happy that it won’t be a complete shot in the dark this time around. For me, there are so many lovely Special Run options this year that knowing who or what the Surprise is, is not going to be a huge factor in my SR selection process. I might even opt out of it entirely, considering how many others are already on my “Must Have” list.

Small Disappointments

Something short today: I have to switch back over to a daytime schedule for a couple of weeks, and I’m trying to adjust my sleep patterns back to something closer to normal this weekend. (I’m not keen on this development, but I’ve been told – and pinkie-sworn – that this is only temporary. If not, lengthy discussions will be had with HR.)

The last official BreyerFest box has arrived – the swag – and I opened it the day I got it (really!) hoping for an extra magnet, but my hopes were in vain. Everything else was present and accounted for – including the “Team Matte” and “Team Glossy” magnets I ordered – but an extra, undamaged freebie magnet was not there. 

I should be happy that I even got one at all, but still. Just another small disappointment in the series of small disappointments that was this year’s BreyerFest. 

I have also decided that if I am lucky enough to be able to participate in the Leftovers Sale, I am not going to be picky about what available, and just get whatever I can get. I can worry about the possibility of duplicates later, and as necessary. 

It’s time to move on from all of this and look forward something else. Anything else: read some books, finish some quilts, and tinker with the handful of customs I have littering my office…

For instance, I have been having some particular fun sorting out my mostly minor issues with the Standing Stock Horse Foal. I say mostly minor, because Hess was a better sculptor than most hobbyists give him credit for, especially when it comes to Stock breeds, and many of the faults were largely due to the limitations of the medium. 

But to gently shift ourselves back to history mode, here’s a photo of one of the lesser-known surprise variations from the late 1990s, back when Reeves was toying with the idea of tossing scarce and intentional variations in with the Regular Run merchandise being shipped to stores:

The Gloss Black Proud Arabian Foal and Solid Bay Huckleberry Bey are the better-known examples from this program, but the four-sock variation of the Blue Roan #735 Paso Fino, on the El Pastor mold, is a more affordable piece. I lucked into mine on eBay in 2003 for not much above the original issue price, presumably because he was neither an Arabian nor Glossy. 

They’ve since repeated this program in slightly different forms, on releases like the Glossy Solid Bay Giselle and Gilen set GG Valentine and Heartbreaker. Although the initial prices for the Glossy sets were a little crazy, once it was determined that the Glosses were a (more or less) one in six variation, the prices stabilized somewhat. 

Perhaps Reeves can use this example as a way forward with future BreyerFest Surprises, announced or otherwise.

For the Records

It’s old news by now, but still worth noting and recording here, for posterity’s sake:

• Rainbow Leopard Appaloosa with Blue Interference: 700 Matte, 325 Glossy
• Flaxen Liver Chestnut Roan: 900 Matte, 325 Glossy
• Palomino Pintaloosa: 975 Matte, 325 Glossy
• Sable Champagne Minimal Splash Pinto: 800 Matte, 325 Glossy
• Bay Maximum Sabino: 1000 Matte, 325 Glossy

I am not understanding the amount of antagonism some hobbyists are still having about the Flaxen Liver Chestnut Roan. It’s like he’s got Khemosabi-level cooties or something. We can’t all make money: sell it at cost and move on with your life. That’s what I did with the Surprises I received that unimpressed me. 

As for not being able to cash in on the current collectibles craziness? (Looks at a garage full of sales items I’ve been unable to list, because a 36-hour day hasn’t been invented yet.) You get used to it, eventually.

Speaking of out-of-control prices, breakdowns for the Surprises were also released today. Per their blog, there were three different 50/50 Splits this year: Seurat, who was the Matte/Gloss; Peche Merle was 50/50 Bay/Buckskin; and Tasilli was 50/50 Marwari/Not. 

All of the Metallic Decorators were issued in 200-piece quantities; with the exception of the Pollock, they were pieces added to (and not taken from) their original announced runs. Anyway, the full details:

• Uffington: 200 Holographic Silver, 1800 Cremello
• Peche Merle: 950 Buckskin, 950 Bay
• Gran Cavallo: 200 Blue/Purple Colorshift, 1800 Liver Chestnut Sabino
• Seurat: 1000 Matte, 1000 Glossy
• Knossos: 200 Gold, 1000 Brindle Piebald
• Tasilli: 1000 Barb, 1000 Marwari 
• Pollock: 200 Gold with Rainbow spots, 1400 Rainbow with Gold spots
• Ansel: 200 Metallic Blue, 2000 Blue Roan

Interesting that they’re officially calling the “Mop Top” version of the Marwari a Barb: duly noted. 

The Buckskin Peche Merle shouldn’t be too hard to find on the secondary, so that’s good for me. 

As for the others, I don’t think the announced quantities will affect their prices too much in the short term. The Glossy Seurats will be even more difficult to attain than the Glossy Thorns were, because New Mold + Glossy; and I am already seeing people trying to use the piece quantities to justify their list prices for the variants. 

But this will change with time; as someone pointed out in the comments a post or two below, the prices for the 2020 BreyerFest Special Runs have fallen back down to issue price, or at least only a modest markup. I am hoping once the next “new hotness” comes along, a Glossy Seurat might become a reality. The Variants will probably hover somewhere above the price for the Surprise Glosses, but not quite the stratospheric prices the first few brought. 

As for possibly scoring another variant, that will depend on what’s available at the “Leftovers” Sale in September, and whether my schedule is compatible with me participating. 

(Still not entirely sure; all I know is that this Saturday will be my only day off from now until Labor Day weekend. Oy!)

Incidentally, I’m a little more optimistic that there will still be some variants to be had. The fact that there seems to be a lot of variants already “out there” is more a matter of confirmation bias than anything else: people are more likely to post pictures of their variants than their boring (in comparison) as-advertised Special Runs. 

That being said, I doubt lightning will strike twice here. Best not to think too much about it. 

Solutions to Problems

I am going to stop checking the shipping status on my BreyerFest packages and be happy whenever they arrive. It’s always good when an (almost) unexpected box of horses arrives on your doorstep, right?

I am beginning to suspect that the variations popping up are more common than we realize, and possibly at the same ratio as the Matte/Gloss splits on the Surprises. Certainly more than 25 to 50 pieces total each. 

My luck with getting Gloss Surprises isn’t so great, so I am assuming the Ansel and Uffington that are coming my way are going to be absolutely normal-looking and as originally advertised. And I am fine with that, because I chose them specifically because I liked the way they looked, and expected nothing beyond that.

And if I somehow get one of those funky Decos, I’ll also be on the lookout for the “normal” ones. But like I said, I don’t think that’s going to be an issue. (Though it would be pretty hilarious if I got the holographic Uffington, because my luck getting Breyer Double Dilutes is even worse than Glossy Luck. Will they cancel each other out?)

The solution they’re offering VIP ticketholders – an exclusive pin, and first dibs on the BreyerFest Leftovers Sale – aren’t what I would have offered. My solution would have been a 1000-piece Gambler’s Choice Special of the Dani in three or four Deco colors – either Red-Green-Blue (RGB) or Cyan-Magenta-Yellow-Black (CMYK!) One per account, with the remainder either being purchase-raffled off or sold on a first-come, first-served basis.

But what they’re offering is quicker and easier for them, and it isn’t nothing. I just fear that I’ll probably be missing out on the “First Dibs” sale, since I have a suspicion that my work schedule will be changing shortly, in a way that might limit my online access.

If I do manage to get the opportunity, I’m either going for a Gran Cavallo, because I didn’t realize his color in person is that Dark Mahogany color I love so much on the Adios Mesa, or the Peche Merle because while I like him in Bay Appaloosa, I kind of adore its Buckskin variation. He looks so good in that color!

I have been meaning to add a John Henry or two to the collection anyway. One of these days I will finally get around to buying myself a nice brindled variation of the original #445 release, but either Peche Merle will also do. 

Brown Breyer Horse Day

It was Brown Breyer Horse Day at my house on Friday. First up, my Surprise:

When I saw the solid Strawberry Roans popping up (aka “the boring one”), I had a suspicion that’d be the one I would get. The only question was whether I’d be getting Gloss or Matte, and it looks like me getting a Gloss last year was merely a glitch in The Matrix. 

Don’t get me wrong, I actually like him and will probably be keeping him (I don’t have any other Dundee molds yet, and I love roans in general), but I’d prefer if my Surprises were actually surprises more often. 

The Universe is pretty insistent on reminding me that I am not special, just weird. 

My Seurat is quite lovely in person – his dapples are subtle and well done – but like last year’s Thorn, I was bummed to find out that he was the Gloss/Matte Split model. It just annoys me to heck that models some hobbyists don’t care about at all sudden become ultra-desirable when they spray gloss on them. Can’t y’all just leave those models for people who like the mold on its own merits?

(A little more on that topic later.)

And also, now that I have one in person, I like the mold a lot more than I thought I would. But the existence of a Gloss variation creates problems. I suspect that, being a newer mold, he’ll be even harder to acquire than the Gloss Thorn was. If I do decide to buy another example of this mold in the near future, it’s probably either going to be the original Vermeer, or another release entirely – coming soon, no doubt.

And finally, another surprise that’s not really a surprise, the Volunteer Model:

He arrived in a slightly terrifying-looking box, but fortunately the miles of bubble wrap he came in saved him. He is not entirely surprising because (a) I was expecting the Desatado mold to show up at BreyerFest in some way, though I thought it’d be as the Surprise Model, and (b) he’s a Rabicano. More than half of the Volunteer Models I’ve received have been some variation of Roan, and even though Rabicanos aren’t genotypically Roans, phenotypically they’re pretty close.  

All that being said, he’s very pretty in person and definitely not going anywhere. Coincidentally, during my BreyerFest shopping trip I almost bought a Lightning Ridge that happened to catch my eye. I ended up selling the first one I bought, but this second one had little turquoise blue socks that I found rather charming. I might end up back at that store for an event at the end of the month, and if he’s still there he might come home with me. 

After some interesting developments at work this week, attending that event seems increasingly remote, though. (I should know by the end of this week. I think.)

Nothing else has arrived. I’ll reserve further talk about the shipping situation until a later date, especially since everyone has a pretty firm and unpersuadable opinion of what’s going on anyway. I’d rather wait until we had more actual information to assess the situation, rather than participate in the increasingly dark-sided online hearsay.

In other words: your move, Reeves. (My opinion to them that they are free to take or leave: being blunt and completely honest is usually the only way to extricate yourself from a difficult position.)

As for the Surprise Decorator development with the remaining BreyerFest Special Runs, I have mixed feelings. I think this is probably the only scenario where they could have executed this successfully. And by successfully, I mean people buying Special Runs because of what they were advertised as, rather than as vehicles for potentially rare variations that lead to money-making opportunities. 

(I say “potentially” because even that, at this point, is a matter of speculation.)

The flip side of this is, of course, the fact that I never get those kinds of rarities, and knowing that even more unobtainables are out there is never not a bummer, especially when it involves things you already liked.

This Year’s Surprise

I finally managed to dig the equipment I needed to out of my often-inaccessible storage closet, so the Samplers will be done in a day or two. 

Well, that wasn’t the week I was expecting to have. For one, I was kind of hoping that this year’s BreyerFest Surprise model would remain a surprise until mine actually arrived (which the UPS web site says is August 3rd, but I’ll take that with a grain of salt). 

I will be considerate and not talk about the actual mold selection in question until mine gets here. All I’ll say is that I really like all of the colors involved and that I hope I get either a Glossy or a Decorator. Glosses are a rarity for me, Surprise-wise, and I’ve never gotten the Decorator option either.

The first BreyerFest Surprise in 2009 wasn’t a complete mystery to us at all: they told us up front that it was the Quarter Horse Gelding mold, and what the colors and quantities were. They did throw in some rarities – ten pieces each of the Silver Filigree, Gloss Charcoal and Gloss Smoke – but unfortunately things did not go according to plan, and they all got dumped into one time slot instead of being equally distributed throughout the weekend. 

Things went a little bit better when they did the second, the Spun Gold Surprise in 2011 on the Ethereal mold. It wasn’t until 2012 and the Stoneleigh Surprises that everything about the Surprise release became a mystery. It was also the first time that Gloss variations of the Matte showed up, and the last time – until last year – that I managed to snag one. And that was only because (I assume) that they upped the ratio of Glosses and made the quantities equal across all available colors.  

I am also going to assume, until proven otherwise, that the equal quantities/equal proportions thing is also here to stay. I’d much rather have aftermarket prices be a reflection of desirability rather than merely one of quantity anyway. 

That would work out for me because my favorites tend to be on colors that a lot of hobbyists find otherwise undesirable – pintaloosas, double dilutes, funky-as-heck Decorators – and that often ended up being designated as the Matte Rarity. Fortunately my luck with the Matte Rarity Surprises has been better than most, but I still wince every time I see a Quelle Surprise Perlino Lonesome Glory for sale. 

Still Surprising, Sometimes

Well, I’ll be diggidy-danged – they did make all the Slainte Surprises the equal amount! 800 for each of the Mattes, and 325 for each of the Glosses.

I was beginning to suspect that was the case; after the initial rush of horse trading, I noticed that the numbers seemed to be leveling out, and that no particular item seemed significantly “rarer” than the other.

Good!

It took a few years for the BreyerFest Surprise Special Run to evolve into what it has become today. With the first Surprise – the Quarter Horse in 2009 – we knew what the mold and colors were ahead of time. The only real “surprise” (aside from the Smoke, Charcoal, and Silver Filigrees that were supposed to be randomly distributed throughout the weekend, but were not) was in which one you’d get.

They switched it up a little bit with the Spun Gold Surprise Ethereals in 2011: we didn’t know the mold initially, but the quantities – again, aside from a Gloss Palomino Appaloosa that actually was randomly distributed – were more or less equal.

It wasn’t until 2012’s Stoneleigh Surprise on the Flash mold that the BreyerFest Surprise became more “standardized”: scarce Gloss variations of the Mattes were introduced, with variable amounts of each color (now four, instead of three). There’s been some variation since then – extra surprises for Anniversary years, the “Dark Horse” in 2018’s Dark Horse Surprise Smarty Joneses – but the formula has been more or less stayed the same.

I know some are lamenting the “chase” aspect, or the delightful mathematical models we build to determine which one is the rarest while we wait for Reeves to actually tell us, but I am perfectly fine with going back to equal quantities across the board. It’ll minimize scalping, encourage trading, and people who suddenly discover that there are eight variations of a mold they NEED NOW won’t find themselves maxing out their credit lines to do so.

It also doesn’t come as a surprise to me that the Glosses were at almost a 1 to 2 ratio compared to the Mattes – I figured there had to be more to my luck this year than The Universe glancing my way and saying “Fine, fine, humor her with a Gloss this time.”

I’ll still take it, though.

One of the other “surprises” this year – the Epona coming in two variations, both loose-maned and braided – is simply a case of Reeves catering to our fondness for variations, nothing more. I fully expect to see unannounced mold variations on BreyerFest Specials going forward, on any mold that comes with that possibility.

(Like most of the Special Runs, she is much lovelier in hand than the photographs suggested, though she is another I will wait a few months on before I even consider purchasing.)

As for the third Surprise – the Volunteer Model being a Gambler’s Choice – that was also something I did not find completely unexpected. With the increased need for volunteers, introducing variations to the Volunteer Special lowers the individual piece counts and therefore increased the potential resale value on the secondary market.

It seemed odd that they would introduce it this year, when the need for Volunteers was significantly reduced (therefore rendering the need for a lower piece count kinda moot). I suspect that this was something that was already planned ahead of time, when an in-person event was still on the table.

BreyerFest in a Box

More technical difficulties this week, that (I hope) are finally worked out.

On the plus side of being mostly offline, I’ve been able to (a) finish dusting, (b) clean the garage, (c) sort and “triage” my quilt projects and even work on them a bit.

(The situation there is not as bad as I thought – I may still be able to hit my original pre-pandemic target by the end of the year!)

I’ve also – mercifully – been able to avoid most of the Online NPOD/Grab Bag “reveals”, which have become something of a sore point with me this year. While I am glad that I managed to get what I could get when others could not, that was one thing I was really hoping to “participate” in this year.

But alas, like so many other things this year, I could not.

My “BreyerFest in a Box” arrived Tuesday, and I’ve slowly been opening pieces throughout the week, as my emotional needs warranted. The first model I opened wasn’t the Surprise, but the Thorn:

I knew when they revealed that the Thorn was the Gloss/Matte Split model that that meant I was still probably getting the Matte, because my lack of luck with Glosses extends even to releases where I have a 50/50 shot (or better, with Lancelot!)

And as chance would have it, the Gloss Thorns are especially nice, and all the people who had him as their 5th or 6th choice and ended up with the Gloss are now either deciding to keep him, or using his “new hotness” to procure something more to their likings.

As you know, I do not play that game, so it’ll probably be a while before I add a Gloss Thorn here. I’m hoping it’ll only be a year, maybe, but the prices for a lot of not-that-rare things are absolutely nonsensical now so it’s hard to judge. Either way, it means I’ll have to wait.

(I was not expecting to see Kochab – the Stablemate MiniMe of the Duende North Star – going for nearly a hundred bucks on eBay, but that’s where we are right now.)

So I didn’t have a whole lot of hope when I finally decided to open my Surprise Friday night. When I took off the orange outer bag I could see that it was the Silver Dapple Black, so I immediately and logically assumed it was the Matte – who appears to be the most common color/finish combo of the Surprises this year.

And I was fine with that, since the color is beautiful and something that they could definitely put on all the things going forward. So when I took off the inner plastic bag and discovered this instead:

My brother and I used to joke that if Mom ever had the luck of actually winning the Publisher’s Clearing House Sweepstakes, they’d never be able to use the footage in their commercials. Instead of immediately bursting into tears or screaming for joy, she would yell something along the lines of “It’s about [expletive deleted] time!” grab the giant check from the hapless Prize Patrol people, and slam the door in their faces.

And only then she would have cried.

Yeah, that’s what I did.

One tiny bit of redemption in a BreyerFest that was otherwise not what I wanted, or expected.

Sorting Things Out

Still not done dusting; I was distracted by the fact that my BreyerFest orders have been upgraded to “Fulfilled” on the Breyer web site, and now that’s all I can think about.

The rhubarb pie didn’t help, either. (I don’t know what magical ingredient my mother puts into it other than rhubarb, but it’s great!)

It’s kind of interesting to watch the transactions for BreyerFest Surprise models take place entirely online this year; it’s still not entirely clear to me (beyond what the most common color is) what their relative rankings are, and I think a lot of transactions are still being based strictly on past history and overall desirability.

(Actually, I would prefer that they make all colors in equal quantities and let hobbyists sort out them out purely by desirability like they did with the first couple of Surprises, but Reeves is going to Reeves.)

Keeping in mind that I have the annoying habit of picking the “rare” one out of the lineup right off every year when I go to take a look at the Silent Auction set first thing Friday morning: my first choice is the Roan Pinto because I have a thing for Roans in general and I think it’s the prettiest one out of the set, though the Silver Bay is a close second.

My second is the Appaloosa because it’s been forever since I’ve drawn an Appaloosa Surprise (the last being the Spun Gold Surprise in 2011) and that’s even longer than my Glossy drought (the last and only being the 2012 Stoneleigh Surprise).

But anyway, enough of the blatherings. Here’s the situation with this year’s Samplers.

I’ll print up about 20 copies to start, and the rest on-demand, with the first batch ready to be mailed out on Friday. After that, they’ll be mailed out as my schedule permits.

All I am asking for is a dollar to cover the cost of postage and supplies, sent via the donate button off to the side here or via PayPal directly, using my Yahoo account (leeta87). With your address, of course.

I haven’t had a chance to pull out older copies out of my files yet; aside from the dusting, my other big project has been pulling and sorting all the unfinished quilting projects crammed in the nooks and  crannies not occupied by horses, and holy cats, that's a troublingly tall pile of work to do. It is almost as tall as I am, and I am not short. 

I do have several copies of the 2018 (I accidentally left a bundle at home that year!) so I can toss one of those in easy-peasy and at no extra charge, but the rest will take a little more time to sort out.

Mystery Surprise Rivet

The weather has turned cold and I am not a fan. (Vita is, but let’s not discuss what the BAD GIRL was up to today, shall we?)

What I am a fan of? Stablemates, obviously:

This isn’t even all of them now cluttering my office, just the ones I could fit on top of the printer. I am quite enamored of this fellow, the Bay Overo Rivet from the 2018 Mystery Horse Surprise Assortment:

You know I love the Rivet mold in general, but I hadn’t bothered to acquire this example until recently because what assortments I found locally were well-picked-over by the time I got to them. But I noticed an untouched box at our local Family Farm & Home store last week, and decided to scratch that particular itch.

(And yes, I did look for the Florentine chase piece, too – without success, obviously.)

I’ve said this before, but it’s really remarkable that Stablemates of this quality – especially compared to the very first Breyer Stablemates issued way back in 1975 – can be had for less than five dollars.

Sure, most of the newer molds aren’t as conformationally or anatomically correct or “showable” as the original Hagen-Renaker G1 releases, but in every other way these new Stablemates are superior. The seams are cleaner, the assortment of molds is crazy, and there’s a greater variety to the paint jobs – enhanced by clean and remarkably detailed masking that would have blown my ten-year-old mind back in 1975.

And this little guy isn’t even the “Chase” piece – just another “Regular Run” in a blind bag assortment!

The only thing that is a bummer about the current Stablemates boom we are going through? Being a completist is now (probably) out of the question.

Before I give in to my desire to hibernate, I do want to address a question in the comments from the previous post: yes, there is a Vintage Club Stablemate for this year. Who or what it is, on the other hand...

Overwhelming, Part Two: The Predicting

I was going to get all fancy with this post and pull out the big words and the big thoughts, but I seem to be coming down with something and all I want to do at this point is eat a bowl of ice cream and go to bed.

So here’s a few relatively unorganized predictions for BreyerFest next year. The usual caveats apply: these are just predictions. I have no special insights or actual intel into what’s actually happening next year, but as you may have seen (sometimes in real time!) I apparently do have some inkling of how they think at Breyer HQ. Which freaks me out as much as you guys, guys.

(Though I was genuinely shocked to discover that many hobbyists did not even have the Moody Andalusian on their radar for this year’s Surprise. That one seemed… pretty obvious?)

The “Celtic Fling” theme is broad enough to include most breeds originating in the vicinity of the British Isles, but for all practical purposes most people are going to interpret it as “Irish”. This is a darn shame but there’s nothing I can do to change public opinion, especially as a decidedly non-Gaelic person. I just hope that – as has been the case in some themes previous – that stereotypes are not necessarily given the nod when various prizes and awards are handed out.

Breeds that immediately come to mind: most of the ponies that occupy/originate in that part of the world, Gypsy Vanners/Drum Horses, Irish Warmbloods and Thoroughbreds.

Possible Special Run molds: Croi Damsha, Brishen/Gypsy Vanner. Rhian & Cadell, True North, Bristol, Cantering Welsh Pony, Bouncer, Fell Pony Emma, Newsworthy, the Show Jumping Warmblood, and just for kicks and giggles, the Bluegrass Bandit.

There is a slight possibility that there might be an Othello, but not as a Surprise. A Decorator, maybe….

Celebration Horse: The Croi or the Brishen are most likely, absent any other evidence.

Surprise Model: See Celebration Horse. I prefer the Brishen because it comes with multiple mane and tail options, and isn’t so popular that it’ll cause an epic hobby meltdown. I also think Bluegrass Bandit is a possibility because it’s come in Translucent before, and hasn’t had so many releases that all the color combos have been exhausted. And there is always one mold that makes us go really, now?

Decorator(s): There are lots of options here. Something Book of Kells-themed? Fairies? Kelpies? Or something stereotypically green, with shamrocks et al? (Experience has told me, alas, that when in doubt, the stereotype usually wins out.)

Something Gold Charm is also not out of the question – as a reference to Celtic/Fairy/Leprechaun (ugh) Gold. I could also see this as part of a Surprise-Surprise (see below).

Nonhorse: I’d be happy with almost anything except another Bull, except for the #365 Black Angus Bull in something different or daring because it’s time, dangnabit. I’d rather it be an Irish Donkey on the old Standing Donkey mold, but I am probably dreaming at this point. (Would make an excellent Pop-Up Store item. Just sayin’.)

Surprise-Surprises: Next year is another anniversary – Breyer’s 70th, as they count it – and I doubt they will let that fact go completely unrecognized. I am unsure they want to pull the same stunt they did this year with the bazillion Micro Run variations, but I wouldn’t rule out a Golden Charm-type Surprise of that nature, either.

But that’s also why I think it’s more likely they’ll honor the anniversary with a Vintage mold or two, either as a Tent or a Pop-Up Special Run. Right now my money is on the Cantering Welsh Pony, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see something like the Bell-bottomed Shire, Running Mare, or even the Jumping Horse. (Or, as I mentioned above, the Donkey.)

One-Day Stablemates: I have no idea, but names from myth and legend wouldn’t be unexpected – like Morrigan, Boudicca, Danu, Epona, etc. (Hmm. Maybe they can slip the G1 molds in here as their Vintage tribute? That would be fun, she says only slightly sarcastically…)

Random Thoughts: other things that might be worked into the theme include whiskey, golf, minstrels and bards, Saint Patrick, and my favorite (of course!) – something referencing the cult classic movie Highlander.

And for something completely offbeat: Special Run Wind Dancers. Because fairies. More likely: the Wind Dancer Plush, for the Pop-Up Store Plushie.

I could go on with some suggestions and improvements to the event itself, but as there has been a ton of news, new releases and whatnot in the past week, I’ll leave that on the table for another time.

(Yes, I saw THAT thing on eBay. I have thoughts, and feelings.)

BreyerFest 2019, Part One

I’m not yet done unpacking and my brain is still stuck in unfiltered mode (four days in the hot Kentucky sun shorts it out that way) so how’s this deal: something short and rambly today, and something longer and more focused on Thursday?

Good? Good.

I managed to snag my two primary wants from the SR line, Bucky and Rocket; I couldn’t get a Quill or a Diana because my place in line with my second ticket was teh awful, so I ended up with what was left: (another) Bucky and Pepper.

No fun variations to be had in my selection, which is what I expected: I haven’t gotten anything “awesome” in the Ticket SR line – Glossy or Rarity – since 2012, and I wasn’t expecting that to change. I am not one of those people.

(Yes, both the Pinto Rocket and Benasque Blue Bucky did make me whimper. Quite a lot, actually. Mostly in private.)

My prediction of the Surprise Andalusian was spot on, and the variation bonanza did not surprise me in the least – other than the scope of it. I do like how that managed to draw some of the focus off the Surprise Special a little bit.

I know it did for me.

I like the Moody Andalusian and have several, including that glorious BreyerFest Special of yore Galahad, but knowing that I had a shot at a possible variation with all of the other Specials made it easier for me to stick to my original choices, rather than attempt to get one of the Surprises I wanted.

Which were the Medicine Hat Pinto and – you guessed it! – the Translucent Lime Green Silver Filigree. The latter was not my idea, but to the currently unknown somebody at Breyer HQ who dreamed up that confection: you get me.

(And no, I had no idea they’d be going with that when I wrote the post about my love of the color lime green back in May. Another coincidence, people. Seriously.)

I have no info about the variations, though what I’ve been hearing is 30 different variations total, with 30 pieces being made of the rarest (like the Pinto Diana, another heartbreaker for me) and others being 50/50 splits.

I am hoping that they’ll publish all the details soon, if only to quell the rumors floating around.

I neither like nor dislike next year’s theme, which is “Celtic Fling”: this seems to put me in the minority. I have nothing against it (except the inevitable onslaught of leprechauns) and I will say that I already have some ideas for Costume Contest and Diorama Contest entries, depending on what the exact focus of these contests are. (Especially the Diorama: for as much heartache as that contest gives me, I do love the challenge of assembling my entry.)

I am also giving some serious consideration to both the Live Show and the Custom Contest, but right now I just want to spend my time recovering from this year.

(And quilting. Lots and lots of quilting.)

Dark Horses

It’s about diggity-dang time they released the Dark Horse Surprise numbers!

Palomino Splash: 1050 Matte/175 Gloss (1225 total)
Appaloosa: 850 Matte/175 Gloss (1025 total)
Bay Tobiano Pinto: 575 Matte/175 Gloss (750 total)
Flaming Decorator: 425 Matte/175 Gloss (600 total)
Black: 225 Matte/175 Gloss (400 total)

The Black is definitely the rarest, and the Splash Palomino the most common. No surprises there.

But I thought – based on online and event sales – that the Bay Pinto was going to be the second rarest.

Apparently the large number of Decorators I saw for sale wasn’t a result of sheer numbers, but a lack of interest/appeal in the color itself, primarily among younger collectors – much like the original 1960s Decorators!

In fact, if I heard any complaints at all about the Surprise model this year, it was from younger collectors bemoaning the fact that they pulled the Decorator. It was very clearly designed to appeal to a rather different clientele from the typical BreyerFest attendee – ones more interested in horsepower, rather than horse power.

It’ll be interesting to see if, like the original vintage Decos, that translates into increased interest (and prices) in the color in the future.

It’s been my experience that younger collectors seem to prefer the Tobiano Pintos; add into the mix the fact that the Smarty Jones hasn’t come in a lot of pintos in general (with the most accessible being the still-pretty-tough-to-get 2007 Collector’s Choice Windtalker in Grulla Overo) and it makes some sense that any kids that snagged one likely kept it.

I would have been fine with the Deco if I had gotten one – you know I love Translucents – but I am glad I ended up with my two favorites: the Black and the Palomino Splash!

Just a few weeks ago I was pining for more Splash Pintos, and the one in the Dark Horse Surprise is beautifully executed: if he had been a standalone Special Run this year, I would have likely bought him!

And well, I’ve been a longtime champion of Solid Black paintjobs for years. When I went over to the Silent Auction Booth to ogle the complete set of Glossies Friday afternoon, two thoughts immediately crossed my mind:

“Ooh, the Black one’s my favorite!”

“He’s probably the rare one. I always pick the rare one.”

I guess my only (slight) criticism of the Dark Horse Surprise was the predictability: a lot of people pegged it as the Smarty Jones early on. I was hoping that Reeves would throw us a curveball and give us something offbeat or a little more Quarter/Stock Horsey.

All The Things

Almost done unpacking, Here is The Haul:

• Brass Hats (2)
• Hands Down Stablemate (2)
• Icabad Crane
• Gloss Foiled Again
• Chestnut Liam (still boxed)
• Newmarket (still bagged)
• Dead Heat – Palomino (still bagged)
• Matte Sierra Rose
• Inari
• Matte Palomino Splash Surprise Smarty
• Matte Black Surprise Smarty
• Annie Oakley’s Prince (NPOD Warehouse Leftover)
• Bay Western Prancing Horse (True Bay variation)
• #606 Classic Ruffian, extra dark with derpy markings

Not shown: the Volunteer Model Othello, who is being admired upstairs. I’ll talk about him more next time, along with some of the others. The can of beer is an interesting story, though a borderline NSFW one.

No Prizes, no Glosses, no Raffles, no outstanding rarities other than the Matte Black Surprise Smarty. I did get the two Dark Horse Surprises I wanted the most – the Splash and the Black – though either one of them being Glossy would have been nice change of pace for me.

I haven’t gotten a Gloss Surprise since the Stoneleigh Surprise in 2012 – back when they were actually rare-rare. (The “easier” something becomes to acquire, the less likely I am actually able to acquire it. Go figure.)

I got pretty much everything I wanted, except for the Gloss part. And the Riddle part. I didn’t get a chance to do much room shopping, either, though that’s probably for the best.

And I wasn’t cool with the way the Costume Contest prizes were allocated.

I could handle not winning: I was resigned to that the moment Breyer took my picture. (Always the Pinup, never the Prizewinner…) But the fact that the Adult Individual category had the largest number of entries, but the fewest number of prizes awarded, did not seem entirely… equitable?

I am not sure if I’ll be participating in any of the contests next year. (It’s not entirely about the lack of winning. I just need a break.) Though since next year’s theme is “Horse Heroes” I might just walk around the KHP wearing a cape just for the heck of it.

(Again: the fact that I posted the picture of Comet the Super-Horse a short time ago was entirely coincidental. I might know things, but not all the things.)

Opening Day 2018

Kind of busy here this week – aside from catching up on all the errands and odd jobs I can now do due to the improving weather, I’ve also been prepping my sales stuff for BreyerFest.

It is taking a little longer than I expected: that is because while I have about the same amount of inventory dollar-wise as last year, I have more physical pieces.

That includes lots of miniatures, dollar table items, books and bodies. Not counting the ones I’ve pulled out for my own amusement, I have about 30 bodies now residing in my Body Box, including a these additions I made on Flea Market’s Opening Day:

An Appaloosa Strapless, a Secretariat, a Roemer Flim Flam, and a Classic Johar! I probably overpaid slightly (there will be no significant resale profit), but they were the first things I spotted when I walked into the flea market, and the reflexes kicked in.

If the Flim Flam had been mint, he would be staying. Same goes for the Secretariat: he has the best shading I have ever seen on that particular release, but he is just a little bit beyond even my lower-than-average standards for a shelf-quality piece. Not that I was looking to upgrade, but if the opportunity arises, I will take it.

I also bought some non-horsey things I’ve already turned a small profit on, so no worries. Except for the fact that my Body Box is now shaping up to be as large as those of the previous two years.

Sigh. I do NOT want to rent a bigger vehicle for the trip. Nope, nope, nope, nope…

So far it looks like I made the right call with the Surprise Boxes: there’s nothing in any of them that makes me want to blow my Paypal account.

I suspected as much. When I took the e-mail claims into consideration – $300 in retail value, with at least 8 items per box – that meant, at most, you’d be getting only one or two really good-to-great ($75-135) items per box.

Theoretically it is possible to put a $200-250 item in there and then load it up on Pocket Boxes and Stablemates, but that would have felt a little bit of a cheat – and the weight of the box would also be a dead giveaway. Hijinks could ensue if people knew they had an extra-special box in transit.

While there are a few items that fit in the $75-135 range I’d be willing to consider, so far nothing that I’ve heard about or have seen (other than the Vintage Club Cantering Welsh Pony My Girls) are things I really want or need enough to buy a whole box worth of stuff for.

Back to bagging and tagging!

Little Surprises

I am absolutely, positively not giving any thought to this year’s surprise model – dubbed the “Dark Horse Surprise”. My speculating powers will take a rest on this one. For me, it will be the complete surprise it ought to be.

I will give my yearly caveats, though: it’s not gonna be a Lady Phase, Weather Girl, Othello, or Silver. They were already used in Treasure Hunts and Gambler’s Choices, folks. Move along.

Speaking of surprises, I almost completely forgot that I bought some of those Pocket Box surprise thingies late last year during a shopping binge. They’re still here, and still unopened:

(There is no Cat one because they weren’t available yet when I bought them last Fall.)

I was reminded because one of my local Meijer stores also had some Yowies in their Easter clearance. They were half price, and having heard about how cute the figurines were, I thought I might as well add a few to my discount Easter basket. (Along with a bunch of Cadbury Caramel Eggs: No matter how many times I talk to my local “rep”, I always get shorted!)

Even though I’ve participated in a few of those videos (long story), I still don’t quite get the whole YouTube “unboxing” thing. I understand why opening boxes and packages is a thrill – that’s most of the reason I buy unsorted box lots on eBay and Craigslist – but it’s something I’d rather do or watch in person, not from afar.

Since I now find myself with a tiny little window of extra time here (and April is being April, sigh) I’m going to do a little unboxing post of my own. First, the Mini Whinnies Surprise:

Blue Roan Draft Horse Prince! I love roans, and was hoping for a Draft Horse, so this one’s a win-win. And now, the Pocket Box critters:

The Dogs: Alano Espanol (Spanish Bulldog) and Shar-Pei. I was kind of hoping for the Fox Terrier (naturally) but these are cute enough.

The Animals: Fox and Squirrel. The Squirrel is nice, but the Fox looks like a Corgi puppy wearing dog booties.

The Aquarium: Manta Ray and Barracuda. I like these a lot. Props to the packaging designer for making the matchbox look like a mini aquarium!

And finally, the Yowies:

Western Lowland Gorilla, Chimpanzee, and something called a Gnash. The figurines are very high quality, though I could have done without the cartoon creature.

(The chocolate is largely uneaten because I am well beyond my daily quota; I had heard reports that the chocolate was not-so-great, but I didn’t find the bits I sampled to be particularly awful.)

Will I be buying more of these surprise packages in the future? Eh, maybe.

I do want to get one of the Pocket Box Cats for my archives. That was one of my reasons for buying these bags in the first place.

The Aquarium ones are really well done and look like the critters they are meant to be, so if I ever have to order one or two to round out an online order, they’d be the ones I’d go with. They’ll fit right in with my aquarium furniture collection too, whenever I get around to setting it up properly.

If there are any Yowies left when the Easter clearance hits 75 or 90 percent, I might pick up a few more of those. At that price, I will be able to resell any duplicates at BreyerFest out of my Dollar Table section.

But the rest? I wouldn’t turn them down if they turned up in a gift basket or grab bag, but I’m not going to put any active effort into getting more. The local flea markets and thrift stores do a more-than-adequate job of providing me with little – and sometimes, not so little – surprises life needs.