And Here We Go

When I said SOON, I wasn’t expecting NEXT DAY!

Well, I was kind of hoping it would be, because it would have been a perfect way to celebrate National Model Horse Day and all. But I also know that NMHD is pretty much just my personal holiday (it’s the 57th day of the year!) and not anything outside of this blog even knows about, so it’s almost purely a coincidence. 

I think. 

Anyway, I didn’t get a chance to access the Internet until almost 5:30 p.m. that day, so the initial batch of Lafayettes were long gone before I even knew they were available. But fortunately Reeves did go with the backorder option, much to the delight of almost everyone except hobbyists with an unusually narrow definition of the term “limited edition”.

It’ll take six month or so for the backordered ones (including mine) to get here, but thank goodness I don’t have to rely on the secondary market to get one at all. A few are selling in the $125-135 range, but for the most part I think people actually read the e-mail/understood the maths before pulling the trigger. 

I hope that all Collector’s Club Exclusives are done this way from now on, especially ones that are advertised for months in advance. There are a lot of models offered through the CC that are not guaranteed in any way – Web Specials, Test Colors, Exclusive Event models, BreyerFest items – and there should be some models available to anyone who has a CC membership, if they want it. 

As for the small handful of folks complaining that Lafayette is not really all that special anymore because he can be backordered... well. I have said this before, but it needs repeating: quantity is only one factor of many when it comes to aftermarket prices on any given model horse, whether it’s a Special Run or Regular Run. 

There are many models with pretty substantial runs that command pretty high prices because collectors love them and want them. Some of the pricier Exclusive Event models, for example, are the ones with 80-125 piece runs, oddly enough. Heck, look at the prices for the Seattle Soiree model Redmond!

When Reeves started labeling things “Limited Editions” and “Commemorative Editions” back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, those items regularly outsold Regular Run, open stock items. Sometimes by A LOT.

So I would always roll my eyes whenever a flea market vendor would try to tell me how “rare” those models were. The quantities specified on the Commemorative Editions had no relation to how well other models made that year were selling. Just because they limited a model to 10,000 pieces in a year did not mean all regular run models made that year were selling more than 10,000 units. 

In fact, I would not be surprised if these “Limited Editions” were the best-selling items in their respective years. (I do not have the time to dig out those files for specifics.) It was just a marketing tactic. People see a number, and they automatically assume that if there is a fixed number, that means it is rare.

Limited does not mean rare. It just means something about the run of an item is fixed in some way: by location, by time, or by quantity. Sometimes those models retain their value. Sometimes they do not.

Collectibles are an unreliable and unpredictable investment, and your money should be better spent on models you intend on keeping long term. End of story. 

Personally, if I really want to get down and dirty, I would propose that Reeves consider making all of their more aesthetically pleasing Special Runs the higher piece count ones, and the more challenging/less showable pieces the scarcer ones. Let’s see just how much money some collectors will cough up for a metallic magenta Khemosabi with lime green points, a Lady Roxana in “Baby Poop Brishen Brown”, or a Fuchsia Pintaloosa Family Arabian Mare. 

The fan base of these molds is sufficiently high enough for most of them that smaller runs will still sell out, handily. (In fact, I am certain that more than a dozen of you are now saying to yourself “I would buy a Fuschia Pintaloosa FAM in a heartbeat.” Me too people, me too.)

If they want to make something extra nice and showable, put it in the Benefit Auction and make sure that money goes to charity.  

In short: if you want to make short-term profits by buying low and selling high (arbitrage) go play that game in the actual stock market, not the plastic one.

Rumors Have It

In other news, there’s yet another round of Unicorn Mystery Surprise Unicorns at Walmart. Like a lot of others, I am mentally and physically tapped out of the blind bag thing at the moment; unless there happens to be one in the assortment I can’t live without – not likely, but who knows? – I’ll either skip this round entirely, or buy them whenever the mood strikes, or the budget allows.

None of the BreyerFest Store Specials have been officially announced, but there’s a very credible rumor going around that WGC Marc of Charm will be one of them – with the model being used being the one he modeled for himself: Hamilton!

(Tentatively pencils him in on my must-get list.)

Speaking of Hamilton, I’ve also heard that the 70th Anniversary Collection will have at least one of each of the four primary releases in each case of six, with the other two being a random choice of the five, with one in ten cases having the Chase Piece Pinto Smarty Jones.

If that’s so, then the odds of getting the Pinto Smarty are about one in 60 – not great, but better than the Stablemates Chase pieces, which are one in 96. This comes out to about 250 pieces per every 2500 cases (15,000 units total) sold.

Back when Reeves had distinct definitions for all of the releases that were not your typical, Regular Run models, the term “Limited Edition” was used to describe models that were specifically advertised as being limited to one year of production. Not surprisingly, “Limited Editions” typically sold better than Regular Run models – often, ironically, outselling some Regular Run models that were discontinued after a single year of production!

The production quantities of these Limited Editions were in the neighborhood of 15,000 pieces, thus explaining the origins of my rough guess number. That was nearly 30 years ago, so I am assuming the actual production quantity will be north of that.

And also assuming that they keep the proportions of the other four models in this release roughly equal – at least initially – that means that about one in four of this assortment will be a Palomino Hamilton.

For the number geeks: that is about 3,685 pieces per 2500 cases/15,000 units – roughly the equivalent of a Brick-and-Mortar Special.

So again to all those people who are still freaking out about getting one: calm down! I don’t think the first new shipments of anything will even be hitting stores for another week or so anyway.

Personally, I am not in any big hurry, but if you could see the state of my house right now you’d understand why….

FYI: Yes, I knew all about the Riddle on MHSP. Aside from the fact that I am a little bit short of fun money this month, what I could comfortably pay for it even if I had that money to play with was well under what it even started at, so that was a complete and utter nonstarter.

A Draft of Champagne

Okay, now this is getting ridiculous. My next grail search didn’t even last the weekend.

Dang, I’m gonna have to start dreaming bigger. I’m not a gambling person, at all, but the next time a friend or coworker asks me if I want to go to the casino, I’m taking them up on the offer.

(You’ll have to wait a little longer than a weekend, however, before you find out who this latest grail was. He ain’t here yet, anyway.)

In case you haven’t seen it yet, here’s a picture of the possible BreyerFest Store Special for this year: a champagne buckskin Goffert!

http://www.villavanners.com/welcome.htm

I say possible because the wording on the web site about it is open to interpretation:

Villa Vanners is proud to announce that Taskin has been chosen to be a limited edition Breyer model. He will be appearing at Breyerfest British Invasion next July.

He could just as easily be a Line Special, Web Special, or even a Mid-Year, based on that description.

If he really is going to be the Store Special, he’ll definitely go over better than last year’s bland little Dusty. A big, fluffy draft horse in an unusual color? Duh. If he looks as promising as he sounds, I might even get one myself.

The usual suspects are making the usual grumping and harumping noises (Gypsy Vanners are a scam! It’s not a British Breed! I hate Goffert!), but one of my New Year’s resolutions is to pay less attention to the negativity in the hobby, and in life in general. I’m not going to turn into a Pollyanna by any means, but good grief, some of the stuff I’ve been seeing in the model horse community over the past month or so is enough to make me consider joining a religious order.

(What’s up with everyone wanting to sue everyone else, all of a sudden?)

Sometimes a pretty horsie is just a pretty horsie. Nothing wrong with that.

I already made some changes to my diet and lifestyle last month, so I’m thinking about something a little more nebulous in the resolution department. I liked the discipline I developed during NaNoWriMo, so I might apply the same working regimen to other unfinished business here. (Quilting and sewing this month, I think.)

I’ll also like to take a bit of a mental breather from the horse stuff. It’s not going to affect anything here; it’s more a matter of slightly refocusing and compartmentalizing, creating a space my personal life where the horses need not intrude.

Sometimes it’s good to get away from the horses once and a while, too.

Well Played

It should have been a nice day. The weather was perfect, I got to sleep in, Tigers beat the Yankees …

Then I woke up, stubbed That Toe again, lost my last quilting thimble, and discovered a little "present" the dog left behind in the chair (before I sat down in it, at least.) I also got yelled at by several people for things I either didn’t do, or had no control over.

Oh, and I also forgot to mention that the last dream I had before I woke up this morning was a rerun. It wasn’t even one of those that you wouldn’t mind having again - one where you remember how to fly, or fall into a giant vat of Stablemates, or something. It was boring, predictable, and no fun at all.

When even your dreams fail you, you know you’re in for a rough day.

I haven’t gotten my Pamplemousse yet, either. Not that I was expecting it today, but seeing the huge glut of them on eBay and MH$P just made me realize that I’m probably going to miss the window of opportunity for unloading mine in a timely manner. I had kinda-sorta come to the conclusion last week that I had to let mine go - no profit, really, just cost plus postage - but apparently so had everyone else.

(I had intended on keeping him, but the money situation is tight and not going to get better in the short term. Last one in, first one out, etc.)

I should have realized that there was going to be a glut of Pamplemousses. We’ve seen this story before, too: remember the "Limited Edition" series of models that began in 1987 with Precipitado Sin Par? These "Limited Editions" were limited not by quantity, but by time: basically, to the number of pieces ordered in a production year.

Many hobbyists - and most casual collectors - made the assumption that the "Limited Editions" implied future scarcity. I mean, if they were only going to make them for a year, then it’s going to be way more rare than some Regular Run item that runs for a couple years or more, right?

Nope. What actually happened was that Reeves ended up making way more of those Limited Edition models than they did of many of their Regular Runs, based on that assumption of future scarcity. Several thousand more, in fact, if the numbers from an internal document I have from 1992 are true (and I have no reason to believe they are not.) Consequently, most of these Limited Editions aren’t terribly hard to find.

I suspect the same thing is happening with the Pamplemousse: I would not be surprised if Reeves sold significantly more pieces of their final JAH Special than they did of several of the more recent releases. It didn’t hurt that they put it out on a very popular mold, in an attractive color, and upped the potential order quantity to two.

It’s a win-win for Reeves: they sell more models, and won’t get stuck with a lot of warehouse overstock. (There will be some - via bounced checks, expired credit cards, and the leftovers reserved to cover damaged items - but not a lot.) The extras that many hobbyists ordered for resale become the responsibility of the buyer to redistribute, effectively making these buyers micro-dealers.

Nice trick, Reeves. Well played.

I only ordered one, and it’s no big catastrophe if I have to keep him. I’ll just have to find something else to sell in the meantime, until the market absorbs all of the extras.

I think it will; as I’ve said, he’s a popular mold in an attractive color. He may not be as "limited" in quantity as other JAH Specials, but he’ll definitely be more limited than most other Othello releases. Not only that, he does have the cachet of being the last official JAH Special, and that means a little something, too.