There will be no fussing about March Madness brackets and predictions here; basketball was more my Dad’s thing, and since he’s been gone I haven’t had the heart, or courage, to watch even a fraction of a game.
I used to be pretty good at that sort of thing; when other little girls were fantasizing about being ballerinas, doctors and airplane pilots, I dreamed of being a handicapper - much to the horror of my elementary school teachers, surely. (I still have my notebooks of racing statistics I kept, tucked away in my relic boxes somewhere.)
The only "Madness" I’m interesting in handicapping in nowadays is the Friday Morning Madness now known as the NPOD.
For the uninitiated, NPOD = Ninja Pit of Death. It’s the "affectionate" nickname for the early Friday morning sales crush in the Breyer Sales Tent, where several hundred people attempt to fit into a roped off area slightly larger than my living room. The objective: grabbing whatever leftover warehouse goodies are to be had before anyone else does.
Last year’s Pit left a less-than-pleasant taste in my mouth that still lingers, which is why I’ve sort of avoided the subject since then. I’m not completely soured on the experience yet; I’ve found some real treasures in the NPOD over the years, and I still hold out hope for more.
I probably shouldn’t even be thinking about buying any more horses right now. It’s that time of year when I’m not even certain I can make it to Kentucky this year, much less brave the indignities of the NPOD. Everything seems so uncertain right now: job, money, life.
But it is also almost Spring. And what good is Spring without hope?
So here’s a few predictions about the contents of this year’s NPOD:
There’s the usual stuff we see every year, more or less: early releases of the Holiday items, Mid-Years, the J.C. Penney’s Catalog items (this year, and last), the first batch or two of Tractor Supply and/or Mid-States Specials, some Fun Day Classics, and maybe leftover Target Pony Gals odd and ends.Some early releases of the WEG exclusives? No doubt.
Then there’s the Ghosts of BreyerFests Past: Buttercream, Cotton Candy, Party Time, Cupcake and probably a few of last year’s POA Toby. Older things, too, depending on what they unearth in the warehouse.
The last several JAH Specials haven’t sold out, and I doubt the Grazing Mare and Foal set "Cream and Cocoa" did either: beautiful paint jobs, not so beautiful prices. That’s a no brainer. I wouldn’t be surprised if a few more Party Girls show up too.
Another no brainer: last year’s Dealer Special Autumn. Another beautiful paint job, and well-received. But do the math: An average JAH Special runs about 1500 pieces, and they haven’t been selling out. They made 2000 of the Autumn - a better price, and a slightly different distribution strategy, but still pretty plentiful.
There might still be a few Medalist Ponies left: they managed to run through the Bronzes and Golds in last year’s Grab Bags, but I didn’t hear many (any?) reports of Silvers being shipped. Were there fewer of the Silvers left, or had they not gotten to them yet by the time the program expended itself? We’ll find out.
There’s been a lot of speculation about the Web Specials. I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect to see Rileys and the Summer Solstices, and perhaps a few more gloss Summer Solstices. Some of the online "combo" exclusives - the horse and book, or horse and tack packages also sold through Shopatron might show up, too, though most folks will be passing over them looking for "more exclusive" things - unless those combos unexpectedly come with unadvertised SRs.
The Connoisseurs? I don’t know. I know lots of hobbyists are beginning to suspect that the Fighting Bull "The Widow Maker" will be showing up: apparently they’re still sending letters from the back up list, which isn’t a good sign because the drawing was back in October. He was pricey, and some hobbyists avoid anything non-horse, so I guess it’s possible. I dunno.
The handful of leftover Halloween Missouri Fox Trotters from last year’s Lone Star Experience are also a puzzle. Everyone at the event had a second chance at them, so theoretically there shouldn’t be any complaint IF they end up in the tent. But after last year’s VRE fiasco, Reeves probably thinks those models are radioactive. Raffles and prizes may be a better bet for them, unless they actually follow through on their promise to limit "Sample sales items" to one per person.
(Which would be sensible, as would a numbering system for early risers. But they haven’t, don’t seem likely to, and I don’t have the authority to implement.)
Will there be other specials in the Tent, a la Toby? If you’ve been reading the literature, you’ll know this to be so: the draft horse "Radar" will have his own exclusive in the Tent. What model this will be I don’t know. The logical choice would be the Classic Shire, except that the mold has a bit too much feathering for him. (I know, I know, since when has a little historical or breed accuracy stopped Reeves?) Like Toby, I think he’ll be fairly limited, but still plentiful, unless he turns out to be drop dead gorgeous or is more limited than Toby’s 750 piece run.
Anything else? I still hold out hope for the slightly defective Play Mat Stock Horses: they’d easily sell through at a buck or two, as bodies. I wouldn’t mind seeing more bodies in general: the "whiteware" box of assorted bodies last year was a good idea in theory, if not in execution. Some collectors like having unpainted examples of their favorite molds: a better assortment of bodies, sold singly, would go over very well.
Then there’s the leftover Alborozos. They must have a few of them kicking around the warehouse. They can’t do anything with them, except paint over a few for test pieces. There’s definitely a demand for them - but I can see how getting rid of the extras could be as troublesome as the Halloween Fox Trotters.
I could go on, but it’s getting late and I have to be up early again, tomorrow. See y’all on Friday or Saturday, thereabouts.
Showing posts with label Toby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Toby. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
More on the POA
I was going to follow up with more thoughts on the QH Gelding Surprises today, but I think I need a couple more days to ruminate on them; I'm not entirely happy with what I've written so far. (This will involve more weeding and quilting, I'm sure.)
I'll talk a little bit more about the Pony of the Americas mold, instead.
I still stand by my estimate of 750 pieces for the Toby: I saw the cases they came in and they were labeled “x of 125.” I saw no other boxes marked otherwise that would indicate an additional 1000 pieces that might have been a second shipment, unless they have plans for those additional pieces down the road. (Perhaps as Mattes?) That “1750” quantity doesn't even make sense: 750 pieces is a sensible and conservative 50% increase over the previous Traditional Store Special Magnifico. 1500 pieces I could have understood, too (that's a pretty standard JAH SR piece run) if a little overly optimistic.
I think we're being thrown off by this year's slightly lackluster sales: just because there were a significant number of leftovers doesn't necessarily mean that the piece run was high. It just means that hobbyists put their money elsewhere – in the Stablemates Sets, most likely, which even at a mere 500 pieces took until Saturday afternoon to sell out. At a significantly higher price, true, but with a bigger potential return on one's investment. (As many hobbyists probably realized, $100 for twenty SR Stablemates is practically a money-making machine in a box.)
The fact that they were boxed, and not bagged and wrapped, may have played a factor, too. Some hobbyists may have assumed from the visual evidence that he was a larger or open-ended run, not taking into account that a boxed model takes up more table space than a bagged model. I suspect if Reeves had labeled them – either on the box, or in a sign – with the piece count, we might have seen brisker sales.
I attempted to find my photographic evidence of the existence of the elusive SR Black Blanket Pony of the Americas I mentioned in passing on Monday, but it's still lost in my archives somewhere. It's probably for the best, though, since it wouldn't have been terribly impressive: it was dark, out of focus and kinda small. In other words, it was about as convincing as your average photo of Bigfoot.
I do remember what he looked like, more or less: he was painted just like the Bay Blanket POA, except in black. He had a small, splash-spotted hip blanket, and no other markings; I believe he had striped hooves also, but since I can't find That Darn Photograph, I can't be 100% sure of that.
(Just illustrative: nothing special about this particular guy, other than being a particularly nice example of a Bay Blanket POA from my herd. No stripey hooves, extra details or any of that. I'd love a stripey-hoof version, too, but I'm not holding my breath.)
Oh, how I wanted him so – and I still do. He was one of those mysterious late 1970s or early 1980s special runs that drove us all absolutely mad. Small special runs of every variety were popping up all over the country back then – and tantalizing rumors of others – but we often didn't know about them until a lucky collector happened to run across one at a tack shop or in a horse show vendor's booth. And by then, the original run would have been long sold out, usually into the general (nonhobbyist) population.
I still occasionally prowl around the usual web sites, looking for him. Even though he's actually quite easy to distinguish from the regular run POA Pantomime – who had an extensive blanket, blaze, stockings and tan hooves – I still hold out hope that (just maybe) enough collectors won't know about him, or won't notice the differences. I've lucked out before.
But so far ...
I'll talk a little bit more about the Pony of the Americas mold, instead.
I still stand by my estimate of 750 pieces for the Toby: I saw the cases they came in and they were labeled “x of 125.” I saw no other boxes marked otherwise that would indicate an additional 1000 pieces that might have been a second shipment, unless they have plans for those additional pieces down the road. (Perhaps as Mattes?) That “1750” quantity doesn't even make sense: 750 pieces is a sensible and conservative 50% increase over the previous Traditional Store Special Magnifico. 1500 pieces I could have understood, too (that's a pretty standard JAH SR piece run) if a little overly optimistic.
I think we're being thrown off by this year's slightly lackluster sales: just because there were a significant number of leftovers doesn't necessarily mean that the piece run was high. It just means that hobbyists put their money elsewhere – in the Stablemates Sets, most likely, which even at a mere 500 pieces took until Saturday afternoon to sell out. At a significantly higher price, true, but with a bigger potential return on one's investment. (As many hobbyists probably realized, $100 for twenty SR Stablemates is practically a money-making machine in a box.)
The fact that they were boxed, and not bagged and wrapped, may have played a factor, too. Some hobbyists may have assumed from the visual evidence that he was a larger or open-ended run, not taking into account that a boxed model takes up more table space than a bagged model. I suspect if Reeves had labeled them – either on the box, or in a sign – with the piece count, we might have seen brisker sales.
I attempted to find my photographic evidence of the existence of the elusive SR Black Blanket Pony of the Americas I mentioned in passing on Monday, but it's still lost in my archives somewhere. It's probably for the best, though, since it wouldn't have been terribly impressive: it was dark, out of focus and kinda small. In other words, it was about as convincing as your average photo of Bigfoot.
I do remember what he looked like, more or less: he was painted just like the Bay Blanket POA, except in black. He had a small, splash-spotted hip blanket, and no other markings; I believe he had striped hooves also, but since I can't find That Darn Photograph, I can't be 100% sure of that.
(Just illustrative: nothing special about this particular guy, other than being a particularly nice example of a Bay Blanket POA from my herd. No stripey hooves, extra details or any of that. I'd love a stripey-hoof version, too, but I'm not holding my breath.)
Oh, how I wanted him so – and I still do. He was one of those mysterious late 1970s or early 1980s special runs that drove us all absolutely mad. Small special runs of every variety were popping up all over the country back then – and tantalizing rumors of others – but we often didn't know about them until a lucky collector happened to run across one at a tack shop or in a horse show vendor's booth. And by then, the original run would have been long sold out, usually into the general (nonhobbyist) population.
I still occasionally prowl around the usual web sites, looking for him. Even though he's actually quite easy to distinguish from the regular run POA Pantomime – who had an extensive blanket, blaze, stockings and tan hooves – I still hold out hope that (just maybe) enough collectors won't know about him, or won't notice the differences. I've lucked out before.
But so far ...
Monday, July 27, 2009
Toby and the Illusion of Rarity
We'll be back to our more-or-less normal, three-posts-per-week schedule starting today. As was patently obvious, neither my head nor my heart was into it last week. I spent most of my free time pulling weeds, quilting, and obsessively following San Diego Comicon coverage. (Still in shock over the fact that Marvel now owns Miracleman. And I SO wanted to see the sneak peek of the Jonah Hex movie ...)
Moving from that universe back to this one … here's another overlooked SR from this year's Fest: the Glossy POA Toby. (Don't read anything into the fact that he's still in his box: I just haven't gotten around to de-boxing everyone just yet.)
Even though he was newly-remodeled mold, and glossy, with an intricate paint job, of rather limited quantity, and less expensive than most of the other Fest specials, he didn't sell out. Normally, any one of those factors could have sparked a hobbyist feeding frenzy. But he wasn't rare enough, unusual enough, or exclusive enough: he got lost among the rarities available to the rabble this year at BreyerFest.
It's really a shame, because Toby is a really, really nice model with a beautiful paint job. It's almost Connoisseur quality: well shaded, with neatly stenciled spots, carefully striped hooves, eyepinks, chestnuts, the whole nine yards. All for only $35!
There were 750 of these little beauties available for general sale in the the Sales Tent (125 boxes, with 6 pieces to a box: 125 x 6 = 750.) That's about half of a normal JAH Special run, and 300 pieces less than the Line Special Cupcake, the gloss bay Newsworthy.
Oh, the mysteries of popularity! And to think, just a few years ago we were on the verge of breaking each other's arms to grab that last Peruvian Paso Magnifico. Maybe it's a good thing that we're not so hung up over the concept of Store Specials now: I think it's a great idea to have exclusive, Traditional-scale horse available for general sale in the tent. Casual or last minute attendees have the chance of getting something special too, without the expense or the bother of getting in the line.
I wonder, though, if the way the Tobies were sold may have affected the way other hobbyists perceived them: the thinking there being that they couldn't possibly be that rare if just anyone could walk in the store and buy them, right? (The topic of what makes a model “rare” I will leave for a future discussion, however.)
The Newsworthy “Cupcake” may have played a factor, too: some hobbyists may have found themselves looking hard at their budgets and flipping a coin to decide which of the two shiny new ponies to take home. Cupcake didn't sell out, either: in fact, only Gala, Sprinkles, the new Arabian Mare and the SM set did. Darn economy! (The Surprise QH Geldings would have sold out, too, if the “surprises” had launched properly, but I'll discuss that in another post.)
I don't know the status of the Tobies that remained unsold; they may just be held back until next year (like last year's SM-scale Tang Horses, which made a return appearance in the Tent), end up on Shopatron (like the Romanticos), or get dumped into future Grab Bags, if that program ever gets restarted.
I got a chance to see the UK Pippins, too – I'm a sucker for a nice bay roan, and he didn't disappoint in person. Unfortunately I was unable to escape my room at the HIN to procure one. My chorus line will have to remain incomplete for now, alas. (No, I don't have the no-one-can-find it Black Blanket Appaloosa SR, either – you know the drill: 'nother story, 'nother time.)
(And yes, I did make a cursory run through of the Tobies in the tent to check for random Matte Finishes. No dice!)
Moving from that universe back to this one … here's another overlooked SR from this year's Fest: the Glossy POA Toby. (Don't read anything into the fact that he's still in his box: I just haven't gotten around to de-boxing everyone just yet.)
Even though he was newly-remodeled mold, and glossy, with an intricate paint job, of rather limited quantity, and less expensive than most of the other Fest specials, he didn't sell out. Normally, any one of those factors could have sparked a hobbyist feeding frenzy. But he wasn't rare enough, unusual enough, or exclusive enough: he got lost among the rarities available to the rabble this year at BreyerFest.
It's really a shame, because Toby is a really, really nice model with a beautiful paint job. It's almost Connoisseur quality: well shaded, with neatly stenciled spots, carefully striped hooves, eyepinks, chestnuts, the whole nine yards. All for only $35!
There were 750 of these little beauties available for general sale in the the Sales Tent (125 boxes, with 6 pieces to a box: 125 x 6 = 750.) That's about half of a normal JAH Special run, and 300 pieces less than the Line Special Cupcake, the gloss bay Newsworthy.
Oh, the mysteries of popularity! And to think, just a few years ago we were on the verge of breaking each other's arms to grab that last Peruvian Paso Magnifico. Maybe it's a good thing that we're not so hung up over the concept of Store Specials now: I think it's a great idea to have exclusive, Traditional-scale horse available for general sale in the tent. Casual or last minute attendees have the chance of getting something special too, without the expense or the bother of getting in the line.
I wonder, though, if the way the Tobies were sold may have affected the way other hobbyists perceived them: the thinking there being that they couldn't possibly be that rare if just anyone could walk in the store and buy them, right? (The topic of what makes a model “rare” I will leave for a future discussion, however.)
The Newsworthy “Cupcake” may have played a factor, too: some hobbyists may have found themselves looking hard at their budgets and flipping a coin to decide which of the two shiny new ponies to take home. Cupcake didn't sell out, either: in fact, only Gala, Sprinkles, the new Arabian Mare and the SM set did. Darn economy! (The Surprise QH Geldings would have sold out, too, if the “surprises” had launched properly, but I'll discuss that in another post.)
I don't know the status of the Tobies that remained unsold; they may just be held back until next year (like last year's SM-scale Tang Horses, which made a return appearance in the Tent), end up on Shopatron (like the Romanticos), or get dumped into future Grab Bags, if that program ever gets restarted.
I got a chance to see the UK Pippins, too – I'm a sucker for a nice bay roan, and he didn't disappoint in person. Unfortunately I was unable to escape my room at the HIN to procure one. My chorus line will have to remain incomplete for now, alas. (No, I don't have the no-one-can-find it Black Blanket Appaloosa SR, either – you know the drill: 'nother story, 'nother time.)
(And yes, I did make a cursory run through of the Tobies in the tent to check for random Matte Finishes. No dice!)
Monday, May 25, 2009
Just Say No. To Mullets.
Technical difficulties today. Sorry about that.
I got all excited the other day – I found another test color splash spot Pony of the Americas! Well, okay, he was in the 1976 Dealers Catalog and Collector's Manual, and I wasn't actually looking for him, per se. I was researching another topic entirely, and I just happened to notice that he wasn't the same pony on the white picture box. That's how research works sometimes: you make discoveries while you're busy looking for something else.
I already knew that the POA in the catalog was a test piece – I just assumed that the one featured in the ephemera was the same one that was on the box. Silly me, making assumptions again. (Alas, he was not the same fellow in my collection, either. So that means there were at least three of them.)
I'm not sure why I have this mild obsession with the POA: I remember when it came out in 1976, and there was just something about it that I really, really took a shine to. I think it was its unique appearance: roached mane, short tail, that leopard appaloosa paint job. The POA was no ordinary, generic pony!
Like everyone else, I finally managed to get a look (via the Internet) at a “live” version of the UK SR Pippin on the newly remodeled POA mold. They “updated” it with a new mane and tail. It wasn't necessary, in my opinion; my first reaction was annoyance. They took away the crew cut and gave him an equine mullet!
I don't like mullets. On horses, or people. (I don't have a preference for crew cuts, but on the right person, it works. If I had a preference, it'd be towards the Byronic. For both men and horses. Let's just leave that discussion ... at that.)
I know “big hair” is back in style, for both horses and people, but I never really struck me as either attractive, or practical. And just like people, some look good in big hair, and some don't. The mane is fine – the mold has a nice enough neck to pull off a short mane. But that tail is weird: it's not an improvement to me.
I'm already predisposed to buy the first two near-simultaneous SR releases of the POA in spite of the less than appealing tail – because of the roany paint jobs on both the UK Pippin, and the not-quite-sure-what-it-is Toby. I love roans! Speckled, freckled, or airbrushed, I'm not fussy. And I'd seriously trample people for a freckle-style black roan – you know, like the old-fashioned red roan paint job with big honking freckles, except in black.
And speaking of trampling people, rumor has it that the Toby is an in-tent BreyerFest store special, like the Porcelain Stablemate from last year. This little nugget of information, however, came in the form of a verbal comment from an unidentified Reeves employee: as I’ve explained before, that’s not the kind of information you can completely rely on.
(I’ve received neither a thumbs-up nor a thumbs-down from the powers-that-be to my attempt to organize the Ninja Pit of Death line last year. The issue has been brought to Reeves's attention, but I’ve heard nothing personally. Yet.)
I got all excited the other day – I found another test color splash spot Pony of the Americas! Well, okay, he was in the 1976 Dealers Catalog and Collector's Manual, and I wasn't actually looking for him, per se. I was researching another topic entirely, and I just happened to notice that he wasn't the same pony on the white picture box. That's how research works sometimes: you make discoveries while you're busy looking for something else.
I already knew that the POA in the catalog was a test piece – I just assumed that the one featured in the ephemera was the same one that was on the box. Silly me, making assumptions again. (Alas, he was not the same fellow in my collection, either. So that means there were at least three of them.)
I'm not sure why I have this mild obsession with the POA: I remember when it came out in 1976, and there was just something about it that I really, really took a shine to. I think it was its unique appearance: roached mane, short tail, that leopard appaloosa paint job. The POA was no ordinary, generic pony!
Like everyone else, I finally managed to get a look (via the Internet) at a “live” version of the UK SR Pippin on the newly remodeled POA mold. They “updated” it with a new mane and tail. It wasn't necessary, in my opinion; my first reaction was annoyance. They took away the crew cut and gave him an equine mullet!
I don't like mullets. On horses, or people. (I don't have a preference for crew cuts, but on the right person, it works. If I had a preference, it'd be towards the Byronic. For both men and horses. Let's just leave that discussion ... at that.)
I know “big hair” is back in style, for both horses and people, but I never really struck me as either attractive, or practical. And just like people, some look good in big hair, and some don't. The mane is fine – the mold has a nice enough neck to pull off a short mane. But that tail is weird: it's not an improvement to me.
I'm already predisposed to buy the first two near-simultaneous SR releases of the POA in spite of the less than appealing tail – because of the roany paint jobs on both the UK Pippin, and the not-quite-sure-what-it-is Toby. I love roans! Speckled, freckled, or airbrushed, I'm not fussy. And I'd seriously trample people for a freckle-style black roan – you know, like the old-fashioned red roan paint job with big honking freckles, except in black.
And speaking of trampling people, rumor has it that the Toby is an in-tent BreyerFest store special, like the Porcelain Stablemate from last year. This little nugget of information, however, came in the form of a verbal comment from an unidentified Reeves employee: as I’ve explained before, that’s not the kind of information you can completely rely on.
(I’ve received neither a thumbs-up nor a thumbs-down from the powers-that-be to my attempt to organize the Ninja Pit of Death line last year. The issue has been brought to Reeves's attention, but I’ve heard nothing personally. Yet.)
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